Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

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ContentsGLOSSARY .......................................................................................................................................... VIIPREFACE .............................................................................................................................................. XIACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................... XIIISTATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY PANEL .................................................................... XVOVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................................... XIXMANAGEMENT RESPONSE ........................................................................................................... XXIXCHAIRPERSON’S SUMMARY: COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPMENTEFFECTIVENESS (CODE) ............................................................................................................. XXXIX1. CONTEXT AND APPROACH ............................................................................................................. 1Two Impacts of Climate Change ............................................................................................................................... 1Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change ............................................................................................. 4Climate Change Makes Development More Costly and Complex ............................................................................ 5Evaluation Questions ................................................................................................................................................ 6Scope and Structure of Evaluation ............................................................................................................................ 7Evaluation Approach .............................................................................................................................................................. 8Portfolio Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................... 92. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AT THE WORLD BANK GROUP ............................................................ 11Strategic Attention to Climate Adaptation at the World Bank Group ....................................................................... 11Monitoring Adaptation Efforts and Results .............................................................................................................. 13Tracking Projects with Climate Adaptation Benefits: Neither an Input, Nor an Output, Indicator ........................................ 14Toward an Improved Results Framework .............................................................................................................................. 16Climate Risk Identification for Projects ...................................................................................................................... 18Climate Risk Identification at the World Bank ......................................................................................................................... 18Climate Risk Identification and Screening at IFC ................................................................................................................ 19IFC’s Approach to Climate Risk Management in Current Practice ...................................................................................... 19Country-Level Climate Adaptation .......................................................................................................................... 20Country Assistance and Partnership Strategies .................................................................................................................. 20Development Policy Operations .......................................................................................................................................... 22Pilot Program for Climate Resilience ................................................................................................................................... 22Case Studies: Supporting Adaptation at the National and Regional Level ............................................................. 23Caribbean Adaptation Projects ............................................................................................................................................ 23Colombia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 25Kiribati .................................................................................................................................................................................. 27i
CONTENTSConclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 293. DEALING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY ........................................................................................ 31Agriculture and Droughts ........................................................................................................................................ 31Irrigated Systems: Irrigation, Efficiency, and River Basin Management ............................................................................. 33Rainfed Systems and the Drylands, with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa ................................................................................ 36Research, extension, and seed delivery ................................................................................................................................. 37Watershed Management and Sustainable Land and Water Management Projects .................................................................. 37Drought Relief and Management Projects .......................................................................................................................... 40Crop and Livestock Insurance Schemes ............................................................................................................................. 42Conclusions: Agriculture and Drought Mitigation ................................................................................................................ 45Disaster Risk Management: Floods and Storms ..................................................................................................... 46Disasters Are a Large and Growing Drag on Development ................................................................................................ 46Management of Current Disaster Risks Contributes to Climate Adaptation ....................................................................... 48The Bank Has Shifted Its Emphasis from Disaster Relief to Disaster Risk Reduction and Mitigation ................................ 49Flood Risk Reduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 49Mangrove Conservation and Planting ................................................................................................................................. 51Financial Risk Management ................................................................................................................................................ 52Conclusions on Disaster Risk Management ........................................................................................................................ 55Hydromet Services .................................................................................................................................................. 56Context: Underinvestment, Underuse, and Uncaptured Benefits of Hydromet Systems .................................................... 56World Bank Experience ....................................................................................................................................................... 58National-Level Projects ........................................................................................................................................................ 58Projects in Africa, Past and Present .................................................................................................................................... 59Dealing with Climate Variability: Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 604. ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................ 61Normative Theory of Incorporating Climate Risk into Project Planning .................................................................. 62Flexibility .............................................................................................................................................................................. 62Discounting .......................................................................................................................................................................... 63Uses and Limitations of Climate Models ............................................................................................................................. 64Applications of Climate Models at the World Bank Group .................................................................................................. 67Climate Change and Hydropower Investments ....................................................................................................... 71Normative Considerations ................................................................................................................................................... 71Analytic Studies .................................................................................................................................................................... 73World Bank Group Practice in Incorporating Climate Change into the Design and Appraisal of Hydropower Facilities .... 73Land Use and Climate Change Adaptation ............................................................................................................. 76Climate Change, Land use, and Biodiversity .......................................................................................................................... 76Macrozoning of Rural Land Use ............................................................................................................................................. 77Exposure Reduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 78Preparing for Long-Term Agroclimatic Transitions .............................................................................................................. 80Agricultural Research and Development, Including Conservation of Genetic Resources ...................................... 82Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 835. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................. 85Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 85Addressing Current Climate Variability ................................................................................................................................ 85Addressing Transformative Change .................................................................................................................................... 86Bank Group-Level Lessons ................................................................................................................................................. 87ii
Page 1 and 2: Adapting to Climate Change:Assessin
Page 6 and 7: CONTENTSBoxesthe role of IFC ......
Page 8: AbbreviationsACCACVCCCCCCCCCTCDMCEI
Page 11 and 12: GLOSSARYClimate variability: Variat
Page 13 and 14: GLOSSARYSustainable land management
Page 16: AcknowledgmentsThis evaluation was
Page 19 and 20: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 21 and 22: STATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL ADVISORY
Page 23 and 24: OVERVIEWClimate adaptation comprise
Page 25 and 26: OVERVIEWfor others. Another approac
Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEWcoffee, may require infrast
Page 29 and 30: OVERVIEWscale pilot projects, asses
Page 32 and 33: Management ResponseIntroductionWorl
Page 34 and 35: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEare. The Bank wi
Page 36: MANAGEMENT RESPONSEweighting or pro
Page 39 and 40: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 41 and 42: ANNEX 1MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD MAT
Page 44 and 45: 1. Context and ApproachHighlights C
Page 46 and 47: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHOften
Page 48 and 49: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHbut wo
Page 50 and 51: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHAntici
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 1CONTEXT AND APPROACHthe fu
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2. Climate Adaptation at the World
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CHAPTER 2ADAPTATION AT THE BANK GRO
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3. Dealing with Climate Variability
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Cli
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-1
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYRESEARC
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY1999 (L
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYBox 3-4
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.34 An
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYto incr
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYdisaste
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYTHE BAN
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.59 Li
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfund di
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYfrom se
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.80 Lo
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CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITYonly ha
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4. Anticipatory Adaptation to Clima
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONlev
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONFor
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONTab
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONBox
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONANA
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONfut
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Integration of Climate Change Consi
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONare
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONcha
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CHAPTER 4ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATIONres
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5. Conclusions and RecommendationsC
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CHAPTER 5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP04
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearPro
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APPENDIX APIDCountryApprovalYearP00
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Appendix BAdaptation-Related Indica
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APPENDIX B• Social Development St
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APPENDIX B• Subnational level app
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Appendix CResults IndicatorsTable C
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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APPENDIX CRESULTS INDICATORSIndicat
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Appendix DDrought Mitigation Projec
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APPENDIX DDROUGHT PROJECTStook the
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APPENDIX EROADSroads to higher stan
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APPENDIX FANALYTIC WORK ON CLIMATE
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Appendix GEvaluation MethodologiesG
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Appendix HAdditional EvidenceH1. Lo
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APPENDIX HADDITIONAL EVIDENCEDrylan
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Appendix IProject ExamplesAppendix
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESplanted a
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESand that
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APPENDIX IPROJECT EXAMPLESunsurpris
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REFERENCESDoell, P., H. Hoffmann‐
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REFERENCESMcGray, H., A. Hammill, R
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REFERENCESUnited Nations Developmen
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ENDNOTESEndnotes1 Lobell, Schlenker
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ENDNOTES22 In Ethiopia, communities
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ENDNOTES39 This review draws upon a
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ENDNOTES61 Resource Guide on Gender
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