Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group ...

CHAPTER 3CLIMATE VARIABILITY3.3 Climate change will complicate these challenges. It will lead to severe crop yieldreductions in some systems while others may see increase in crop yields (Jones andThornton 2003; Nelson, Rosengrant and others 2009);(Schlenker and Lobell 2010). Inmany cases, existing coping strategies of these vulnerable populations may not beadequate to cope with the negative impacts of climate–induced, increasingly limited,and highly variable rainfall (CGIAR 2009). In many areas, irrigated and rainfed, risingtemperatures will lead to transformational changes requiring adoption of betteradapted varieties of plants and animals. Agriculturalists may be able to shift crops, ortransition between crops and livestock (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009), but thesetransitions may require support in training, extension, infrastructure, and marketing.Potential but poorly understood climate risks—such as failures of monsoon rains,disruption of pollination processes, or emergence of new pests—remain wild cards.3.4 This section focuses on lessons from dealing with today’s climate variability.Because agriculture is a vast topic, already covered in a recent IEG evaluation, the focushere is selective, emphasizing the challenges of rainfed agriculture and of sustainableland and water management. The section looks at experience with national-scaledrought mitigation projects. It also assesses experience with index-based agriculturalinsurance, which features prominently in the SFDCC. Deferred to chapter 4 is adiscussion of anticipatory adaptation efforts that involve planning now fortransformational change in the future.IRRIGATED SYSTEMS: IRRIGATION, EFFICIENCY, AND RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT3.5 Irrigated agriculture has three important connections with climate adaptation.First, irrigation boosts productivity and protects crops from failure due to heat waves,floods, and droughts. This makes it an important vehicle for adaptation at the local andglobal scale, by providing a large and reliable supply of food (40 percent of the globaltotal on 20 percent of cultivated land). Second, because irrigated crops are alreadyprotected against rainfall variability, they are more sensitive to predicted long-termincreases in temperature. Finally, irrigation represents 86 percent of human water use.Water demand already exceeds sustainable supply in many parts of the world, andclimate change will add to this stress. More efficient irrigation can help relieve thisstress, making water available for residential and industrial use and environmentalflows.3.6 World Bank Group experience with irrigated agriculture was extensivelyreviewed in two recent IEG evaluations (IEG 2010a; IEG 2010b). Over 1998-2008, theBank Group committed about $6.5 billion in irrigation projects, of which $6.2 billionwas from the World Bank. Eighty percent of closed projects were successful in meetingphysical goals and 92 percent achieved production goals. However, sustainability wasan issue. IEG’s evaluation found that while about 60 percent of projects tried to improve33