A Critical Conversation on Climate Change ... - Green Choices

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8 development dialogue september 2006 – carbon tradingFigure 2. Atmospheric carbonSource: World Resources InstituteAtmospheric Concentrations ofCarbon Dioxide, year 1000-2003Parts Per Millions By Volume4003803603403203002802602402202001000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Source: Scripps, ORNL, and IPCCGlobal Carbon Emissions fromFossil Fuel Burning, year 1751-2003Million Tons Carbon Equivalent8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00001750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Source: Worldwatch, ORNL, BPThe current rate of accumulation in the atmosphere is over 1.6 extrabillion tonnes of carbon every year. And on current trends, manytimes more fossil carbon will be added to the atmosphere over thiscentury than has been added since the industrial era began.What would have to be done to stop the overfl ow?Well, there’s already far more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere thanthere has been at any other time in the last half million years – 380parts per million, as compared to pre-industrial levels of 280 parts permillion. 8 So a lot of damage has already been done.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) in 1990, in order to stabilise atmospheric concentrations ata level less than double that of preindustrial times, greenhouse gasemissions would have to be reduced by 60–80 per cent.So at present we’re acting as if we have something like two and a half to fi vetimes the amount of carbon dump space than we really have.Well, it’s probably not possible to estimate with any certainty theearth’s capacity to recycle transfers of fossil carbon with no remainder.But there’s no question that the current rate of overflow is huge.
introduction – a new fossil fuel crisis 9And this is defi nitely the main cause of climate change?The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,perhaps the most prestigious body of climate scientists ever assembled,concludes that most of the observed warming of the last 50 yearsis likely to be due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrationsdue to human activities.But isn’t there a lot of controversy about that?Not much. The IPCC’s judgement is now supported by the US’s NationalAcademy of Sciences, Brazil’s Academia de Ciencias, China’sAcademy of Sciences, the UK’s Royal Society, France’s Académie desSciences, Germany’s Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina, India’sNational Science Academy, the Science Council of Japan, the Russia nAcademy of Sciences, Italy’s Accademia Nazionale dei Lince i, theAmerican Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union,Canada’s Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancementof Science. 9 There’s no dissent from it in any of 928 peerreviewedscientific essays on global climate change published between1993 and 2003. 10 And the few remaining contrary bits of evidence havebeen pretty much explained away over the last couple of years. For example,the oceans have warmed in a way that virtually rules out cyclicvariations in solar energy as an explanation. 11OK, give me the bad news. What happens if the world’s above-ground carbondump goes on overfl owing into the atmosphere?At some point the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhousegases in the atmosphere will change the climate catastrophically. Asbiologist Tim Flannery notes, ‘There is so much carbon buried in theworld’s coal seams [alone] that, should it find its way back to the surface,it would make the planet hostile to life as we know it’. 12 Combustionof even a substantial fraction of remaining fossil fuels – even afew more hundred billion tonnes – could be disastrous. 13How bad is the situation now?It’s hard to tell what the ultimate effects will be, because the extragreenhouse gas already in the air will have long-term effects, notall of which are evident today. Global average temperatures haveincreased by only 0.7 degrees Centigrade since the mid-1800s. Tobe sure, some changes often attributed to global warming are alreadynoticeable. For example, rainfall in mid- to high latitudeshas increased, Arctic communities are increasingly threatened bycoastal erosion and damaged hunting territories, Arctic sea ice and
Page 1 and 2: PRESS RELEASEContact:Linda Chiavaro
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Chapter 5Ways forwardIn which the c
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ways forward 331‘Tinkering around
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ways forward 333suggests that the
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ways forward 335more stringent than
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ways forward 337Unlike carbon tradi
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ways forward 339hold little appeal
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ways forward 341Waiting their Chanc
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ways forward 343ways - many of whic
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ways forward 345energy - loan benef
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ways forward 347From an Open Letter
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ways forward 349be answered in the
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ways forward 351rogated by Indian v
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ways forward 353argue, they’ve he
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ways forward 355‘The US alone acc
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appendix - the durban declaration o
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appendix - the durban declaration o
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