A Critical Conversation on Climate Change ... - Green Choices

158 development dialogue september 2006 – carbon trading• Since the turn of the century, evidence has been emerging thatpossible climatic ‘tipping events’ such as the rapid release of greenhousegases from permafrost, peat, ocean floors or dried-out tropicalor boreal forests could be as unpredictable in their timing asin their impacts. 333 Meanwhile an enormous ‘missing sink’ in thebiosphere has yet to be definitively located. 334• In 2000 scientists were startled to learn that the heat absorbed bydark-coloured tree plantations in Northern regions might cancelout their ability to absorb carbon dioxide. 335 A review article inScience warned that unanticipated ‘feedback effects between carbonand other biogeochemical and climatological processes willlead to weakened sink strength in the foreseeable future.’ 336 Thepossibility was mooted that that lengthening of dry seasons couldabruptly result in catastrophic releases of carbon through fires inAmazon, pushing temperatures up 6–8 ºC in 100 years. 337• In 2002, scientists warned that soils’ or forests’ ability to functionas sinks under different conditions is nonlinear and ‘limited.’ 338• In 2004, experiments called into question the effectiveness of increasingthe oceans’ uptake of carbon by seeding them with iron,demonstrating that the organic carbon increased by the techniqueis not transferred efficiently below the permanent thermocline. 339Global warming was shown to intensify insect infestations thatcan damage the carbon-storing ability of forests. 340• In 2005, new research suggested that carbon releases from soils ina warming world may ‘be even stronger than predicted by globalmodels.’ 341 It was then revealed that since 1978 there had been hugesurprise carbon releases from warmed soils in the UK. 342 New researchshowed that in many circumstances ‘creating carbon offsetcredits in agricultural soils is not cost effective because reducedtillage practices store little or no carbon.’ 343 Reduced-tillage soilcarbon sequestration was found to result in unexpected releases ofnitrous oxide, a powerful greenhouse gas. 344• Also in 2005, an ensemble of general circulation models assuminga doubling of levels of atmospheric CO 2 and a selection of conditionsconsidered plausible by experts showed that the range of possiblewarming (and thus effects on carbon-storing ecosystems) wasfar greater than expected (from less than 2 to more than 11.5 degreesCelsius). 345 Unexpected carbon dioxide releases from biologicalmatter in Amazonian rivers were traced for the first time. 346‘It’s a working principleof the Head Bureau thatthe very possibility oferror must be ruled outof account. This groundprinciple is justifi ed by theconsummate organisationof the whole authority,and it is necessary if themaximum speed is tobe attained…Is there aControl Authority? Thereare only control authorities.Frankly it isn’t theirfunction to hunt out errorsin the vulgar sense, forerrors don’t happen, andeven when once in a whilean error does happen, asin your case, who can sayfi nally that it’s an error?’‘The Superintendent’in Franz Kafka,The Castle, 1926