A Critical Conversation on Climate Change ... - Green Choices

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186 development dialogue september 2006 – carbon tradingYes. The World Bank has admitted that most Southern countries can deliveronly small projects. The risks and high per-credit transaction costsinvolved in delivering carbon from these projects makes it unlikely thatsmaller, poorer countries will be able to attract much carbon finance.Indeed, the Bank’s response to the problem – setting up a specialpurposeCommunity Development Carbon Fund that pays higher thanmarket prices for small projects in Southern countries – is an implicitadmission that ‘the market’ will not work in the hoped-for way in theSouth, and that a carbon market that revolves around private capitaland low-cost carbon credits will bypass the smallest countries.As of August 2006, just four countries – China, Brazil, Korea andIndia – were hosting over 61 per cent of the 265 CDM projects registeredby that date, and producing an overwhelming 86 per cent of theassociated CDM credits (see Figures 9 and 10).Figure 9. Expected Average Annual CDM Credits from already registered projects, August 2006Source: UNFCCCMalaysia 1%Chile 2% Other 5 %Argentina 2%Mexico 5%India 12%China 44%Republic of Korea 13%Brazil 16%Figure 10. Number of Already-Registered CDM Projects by Country, August 2006Source: UNFCCCOthers 18%Republic of Korea 2%Argentina 2%Malaysia 3%India 31%Honduras 3%Chile 5%Brazil 22%China 7%Mexico 7%
lessons unlearned 187Where’s the enforcement?One of the most important lessons of US pollution markets is thattrading requires not only a credible system of measuring emissionsbut also a system of strict enforcement of the rules under a single governmentaljurisdiction. 436As argued above, these conditions are not present under either theKyoto Protocol or the EU ETS. Measurement is inadequate or impossible.Monitoring is insufficient or impossible. Penalties wouldhave to be made far more serious than they are today. And without aworld government, signatories to treaties such as the Kyoto Protocolmay simply renege on their agreements if they find that meeting theirtargets are inconvenient.Both Los Angeles’s RECLAIM and the US sulphur dioxide programmewere instituted under single governmental jurisdictions that were ableto impose tough and enforceable penalties. 437 The Kyoto Protocol, bycontrast, is an international agreement that will be easy for any countryto disobey, or withdraw from, if its pollution allowances prove insufficient.Former Canadian Finance Minister John Manley recently reassuredCanadians that they should not worry about international penaltiesif the country falls short of its Kyoto targets, because the treaty is‘not binding’. Countries that do stay in the agreement but overshoottheir targets in 2012 are required to find only an extra 0.3 permits overthe next five years on top of each permit they ‘owe’.The EU ETS may appear to have more enforcement power at its disposalthan Kyoto does. However, it’s revealing that it dares to imposeonly a paltry penalty of €40 per tonne of carbon dioxide on thosewho use more than their entitlements, compared to an April 2006carbon price that had reached €30 per tonne. This effectively caps thecarbon price at a level not much higher than it started out at – a leveleverybody agrees is not going to provide an incentive for structuralchange. Even then, Germany proposed halving the penalty in 2006. 438By contrast, the US sulphur dioxide programme imposed a penalty20 times the permit price.But will it really come to the point that countries simply default on their Kyototargets?Well, it’s already clear that many industrialised countries won’tachieve their targets – even if they take advantage of what economistCornelius van Kooten calls the ‘smoke and mirrors’ of purchasesof ‘hot air’ from Russia and the Ukraine, ‘carbon offset credits for
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PRESS RELEASEContact:Linda Chiavaro
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ContentsEditorial note 2Chapter 1 I
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editorial note 3in Dorset, UK - poi
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6 development dialogue september 20
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Chapter 2‘Made in the USA’A sho
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‘made in the usa’ - a short his
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Chapter 5Ways forwardIn which the c
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ways forward 331‘Tinkering around
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ways forward 333suggests that the
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ways forward 335more stringent than
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ways forward 337Unlike carbon tradi
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ways forward 339hold little appeal
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ways forward 341Waiting their Chanc
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ways forward 343ways - many of whic
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ways forward 345energy - loan benef
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ways forward 347From an Open Letter
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ways forward 349be answered in the
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ways forward 351rogated by Indian v
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ways forward 353argue, they’ve he
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ways forward 355‘The US alone acc
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appendix - the durban declaration o
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appendix - the durban declaration o
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