Migrant Smuggling Data and Research

also give an impression of the number of smuggled migrants in the country. The
results will be made publicly available through an online platform.
While the exercise is based on estimates and informant-based reporting,
by cross-referencing the estimates of a number of informants at a number of
layers, it allows for a strong estimate. Moreover, repeating the exercise on a
weekly basis not only allows figures to be regularly updated, but it also allows
for trends to be identified, which could allow for future forecasting too. In the
current context of Libya, that is, an environment that is changing rapidly, a good
estimate that is updated frequently is much more realistic and useful than an
actual counting exercise that would attempt to create an accurate figure. This is
because a counting exercise would need to be longitudinal in nature for it to yield
an accurate figure (it would need to be conducted over a year, at a minimum,
in order to account for seasonal variations), which means it would be time and
resource consuming. Moreover, given the ongoing insecurity in Libya and the
fact that communities are likely to keep moving in this context, the figure that it
yields may not be relevant by the time it is realized. The current context in Libya
also makes a counting exercise near impossible, given the security limitations.
As North Africa is also a transit region for migrants moving to Europe,
data on irregular migration in the region is sometimes extrapolated from official
data sources in receiving countries on the other side of the Mediterranean. For
example, data on irregular arrivals in Italy, Malta and Spain collected by national
governments, UNHCR, IOM and Frontex gives a sense of the number of irregular
migrants that moved to Europe through the various North African countries. For
example, Figure 4.2 charts arrivals in Italy between 2012 and 2014 according
to the country of departure and thus, provides official data on the number of
migrants that were smuggled from North Africa across the Mediterranean.
Migrant Smuggling Data and Research:
A global review of the emerging evidence base
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