Migrant Smuggling Data and Research

In terms of research focused on smuggling specifically in the post-2014
period, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and GITNOC have made sound
contributions. Unlike most of the research in this area, these two organizations
focus on the criminal drivers of smuggling in North Africa. That is, rather than
looking at smuggling as a facet of migration and smugglers as individuals who
fulfil a demand for irregular migration, they look at smuggling as a transnational
crime and part of the illicit economy. The USIP study, while not providing a great
deal of information on its methodology, was apparently based on more than
200 qualitative interviews across Libya. GITNOC does not necessarily base its
work on primary research; it tends to bring together a lot of secondary sources,
including the work of journalists and anecdotal evidence provided by the media,
with little critical assessment of its sources. In any case, both organizations have
attempted to size the criminal economy linked to smuggling in Libya and outline
the links between migrant smuggling and other forms of smuggling in the region.
Across the body of research, what is lacking is primary research. The
research can be categorized according to rapid updates and papers more akin to
policy briefs and research based on more sound methodologies. The policy brief
type research tends to be based on secondary research only with little critical
assessment of sources. The impression is that organizations active in this area
favour regular updates over rigorous research (GITNOC, New-Med). More sound
methodologies include primary research modules (see Altai, MHub and RMMS),
although most primary research that exists is in the form of primary qualitative
research. Most of it is conducted with migrants who are asked about their
experiences with smugglers (see Altai, RMMS and MHub). Some of it involves
interviews with smugglers, but this is not usually conducted systematically; if
conducted at all, it is usually a handful of smugglers that are interviewed among
a bigger sample of interviews with migrants (see Altai and RMMS).
There is dearth of research based on primary quantitative research or
samples larger than a few hundred interviews. While the qualitative research
that exists has been successful in identifying the trends and major dynamics, the
lack of quantitative research means that there has been no effort to quantify any
of these dynamics after 2006. It should be noted that Altai’s Libya study of 2013
(Malakooti, 2013a), and RMMS’ 2014 study did build upon quantitative research
that had been conducted for other studies but did not include quantitative
modules of their own. 21
21
In the case of Altai, it was 600 interviews conducted with tribal groups in the south of Libya in 2013, and in
the case of RMMS, it was a survey conducted by DRC with over 1,000 migrants in 2013.
98
4. North Africa