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Market Share of U.S. Fleet The first registered aircraft forecast was developed by comparing the aircraft registered in the study area with the 2-14 United States active fleet of general aviation aircraft. Table 2D provides historical and forecasted aircraft registrations since 1995. TABLE 2D Service Area Registered Aircraft Forecasts Mesquite Metro Airport U.S. Active Service Area Registered Year Aircraft Aircraft % of U.S. Aircraft 1995 188,089 696 0.3700% 1996 191,129 710 0.3715% 1997 192,414 726 0.3773% 1998 204,711 728 0.3556% 1999 219,464 721 0.3285% 2000 217,533 753 0.3462% 2001 211,447 748 0.3538% 2002 211,244 758 0.3588% 2003 211,190 742 0.3513% 2004 219,100 763 0.3482% Constant Share Forecast 2010 236,900 825 0.3482% 2015 246,400 859 0.3482% 2025 266,600 929 0.3482% Increasing Share Forecast 2010 236,900 849 0.3580% 2015 246,400 912 0.3700% 2025 266,600 1,040 0.3900% Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast Data, U.S. Census of Civil Aircraft Two forecasts were developed considering the study area’s share of U.S. active aircraft. First, a forecast maintaining a constant 0.3482 percent of U.S. active aircraft was developed. This forecast yields 929 registered aircraft by 2025. Next, an increasing share forecast was developed. As presented in the table, the increasing share forecast yields 1,040 aircraft by 2025. By the intermediate term of the forecast (roughly 2015), aircraft registrations would equal the 1995 percentage share of U.S. active aircraft and then grow moderately through the long term period. Market Share per 1,000 Population Another method of forecasting study area aircraft registrations considers the number of aircraft per 1,000 residents in the study area. Because historical and forecast population data is not readily available by zip code, Dallas County is used for the population comparison, as it is a serviceable approximation of the study area. Table 2E presents historical and forecast registered aircraft per 1,000 residents of Dallas County.
TABLE 2E County Aircraft Per 1,000 Resident Population Mesquite Metro Airport Study Area Registered Dallas County Year Aircraft Population 2-15 Aircraft Per 1,000 Residents 1993 671 1,955,791 0.34 1994 691 1,991,375 0.35 1995 696 2,027,606 0.34 1996 710 2,064,496 0.34 1997 726 2,102,058 0.35 1998 728 2,140,302 0.34 1999 721 2,179,243 0.33 2000 753 2,218,899 0.34 2001 748 2,261,967 0.33 2002 758 2,302,149 0.33 2003 742 2,341,141 0.32 2004 763 2,377,544 0.32 Constant Ratio Projection 2010 828 2,579,566 0.32 2015 885 2,757,573 0.32 2025 1,000 3,117,192 0.32 Increasing Ratio Projection 2010 877 2,579,566 0.34 2015 993 2,757,573 0.36 2025 1,247 3,117,192 0.40 Source: Coffman Associates Analysis Two forecasts were developed considering aircraft registrations per 1,000 residents. First, a constant share of 0.32 aircraft per 1,000 residents yielded 1,000 registered aircraft by 2025. Next, an increasing share projection reaching 0.40 aircraft per 1,000 residents yielded 1,247 aircraft registrations in the study area by 2025. Statistical Trends and Regression A trend line projection was also considered for forecasting registered aircraft in the study area, yielding an “r 2 " value of 0.88. This projection yields 813 registered aircraft by 2010, 851 aircraft registrations by 2015, and 927 registrations by 2025. Regression analysis was also conducted comparing Dallas County’s population to registered aircraft in the study area. An “r 2 " value of 0.88 resulted. For 2010, this regression forecast yields 807 registrations, the 2015 projection is 841, and 911 by 2025. Registered Aircraft Summary Table 2F summarizes the six projections and presents the selected forecast for registered aircraft in the study area. It appears that no single projection stands out as the most reasonable. For this reason, the selected forecast represents a near average of all the projections. The forecasts developed for the study area’s registered aircraft are also depicted on Exhibit 2C.
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AIRPORT MASTER PLAN METRO AIRPORT
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Chapter Two AVIATION DEMAND FORECAS
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Chapter Five AIRPORT PLANS RECOMMEN
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Appendix A GLOSSARY OF TERMS Append
Page 11 and 12: CHAPTER ONE INVENTORY The City of M
Page 13 and 14: 04MP22-1A-2/14/05 Bowie Granbury y
Page 15 and 16: TABLE 1B Climate Summary Mesquite,
Page 17 and 18: 04MP22-1B-2/8/06 Lead-In-Lights (LD
Page 19 and 20: windcone. The segmented circle is l
Page 21 and 22: A GCO is typically a necessity at a
Page 23 and 24: 04MP22-1C-2/8/06 Texas Department o
Page 25 and 26: Fuel Facilities As the only fuel pr
Page 27 and 28: periods of poor visibility. Mesquit
Page 29 and 30: 04MP22-1E-3/17/05 AGL FL MSL LEGEND
Page 31 and 32: eight miles to the east is V15 and
Page 33 and 34: channel 123.05 Mhz. Aircraft operat
Page 35 and 36: Dallas Executive Airport, formerly
Page 37 and 38: depicts the existing land uses in t
Page 39 and 40: 04MP22-1G-2/14/05 LEGEND Agricultur
Page 41 and 42: EMPLOYMENT Analysis of a community
Page 43 and 44: TABLE 1L Major Employers City of Me
Page 45 and 46: A number of internet Web sites were
Page 47 and 48: CHAPTER TWO Aviation demand forecas
Page 49 and 50: population for Dallas County is for
Page 51 and 52: to produce a market share projectio
Page 53 and 54: In determining the aviation demand
Page 55 and 56: 04MP22-2A-2/22/05 Johnson Legend Wa
Page 57 and 58: influence the aviation industry, le
Page 59 and 60: The General Aviation Manufacturers
Page 61: Registered Aircraft Forecasts One m
Page 65 and 66: 04MP22-2C-4/5/05 REGISTERED AIRCRAF
Page 67 and 68: 231, 243 and 258 based aircraft, wh
Page 69 and 70: are additionally constrained from a
Page 71 and 72: changes in a timely fashion. These
Page 73 and 74: GENERAL AVIATION ANNUAL OPERATIONS
Page 75 and 76: the larger business jets. As more o
Page 77 and 78: standard of 17.5 percent of the des
Page 79 and 80: 04MP22-2E-2/8/06 BASED AIRCRAFT AIR
Page 81 and 82: CHAPTER THREE airport FACILITY REQU
Page 83 and 84: 04MP22-3A-2/8/06 A-I B-I B-II B-I,
Page 85 and 86: the air after departure, or close t
Page 87 and 88: TABLE 3B Representative Private Jet
Page 89 and 90: TABLE 3D Minimum Itinerant Jet Oper
Page 91 and 92: Design, as a “surface surrounding
Page 93 and 94: Upgrading to ARC C/D-II presents de
Page 95 and 96: easonable capacity should start at
Page 98 and 99: aircraft-specific, such as haul len
Page 100 and 101: Haul Length The FAA Computer Progra
Page 102 and 103: ased on the criteria for runway len
Page 104 and 105: The existing critical aircraft, how
Page 106 and 107: information to allow category II an
Page 108 and 109: Airport has shown that when the ini
Page 110 and 111: Markings for a parallel runway shou
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a total of approximately 40,300 squ
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terminal building area, currently o
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TABLE 3Q Vehicle Parking Requiremen
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potential aviation demands projecte
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04MP22-3E-4/7/05 AIRCRAFT STORAGE H
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CHAPTER FOUR ALTERNATIVES In the pr
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many corporate officials will have
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estrict northerly expansion capabil
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04MP22-4A-7/8/05 AIRFIELD CONSIDERA
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Order states, “The goal of the Ru
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Runway Protection Zone The RPZ is a
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AIRFIELD ALTERNATIVE 1 Alternative
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04MP22-4C-6/17/05 MALSR DECLARED DI
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Disadvantages: The runway would not
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04MP22-4E-2/8/06 1 Mile Visibility
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ing to meet FAA and TxDOT airport d
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the TSS for Runway 17, except the o
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Since the completion of the previou
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Boulevard, Alternative 1A shows a s
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04MP22-4J-2/8/06 1/2 Mile Visibilit
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industrial parcels become available
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• The proposed site must be large
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program was recently increased to o
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Cab Eye Elevation The minimum cab e
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Chapter Five AIRPORT PLANS
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growth over the last several years
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conducting business in the Mesquite
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The runway safety area (RSA) for AR
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at least 35 feet wide for aircraft
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04MP22-5B-12/7/05 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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is used by the FAA and TxDOT to det
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Chapter Six FINANCIAL PLAN
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AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULES AND C
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fueling. The fuel containment syste
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04MP22-5A-3/21/06 2 1/2 Mile Visibi
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INTERMEDIATE TERM IMPROVEMENTS The
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IMPROVEMENTS SUMMARY The CIP covers
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million earmarked for Non-Primary E
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elated grants and interest, are irr
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development by the City. New hangar
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hangars may be needed at the airpor
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A Appendix GLOSSARY OF TERMS Airpor
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a predetermined circling instrument
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distance of an aircraft from the DM
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2. When directed by air traffic con
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RUNWAY BLAST PAD: a surface adjacen
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TOUCH-AND-GO: an operation by an ai
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ABBREVIATIONS AC: advisory circular
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NPRM: notice of proposed rulemaking
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Appendix B ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION
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projected to account for the critic
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TABLE A (Continued) Environmental E
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04MP22-5A-2/8/06 65 LEGEND Airport
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KANSAS CITY (816) 524-3500 237 N.W.
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