airport/documents/Mesquite Master Plan Final.pdf - The City of ...

Comparative Forecasts
The FAA TAF also contains projections
of based aircraft. For 2010, the TAF
projects 245 based aircraft, increasing
to 263 by 2015. The 2020 TAF
projection is for 282 based aircraft.
Because the TAF does not project
beyond 2020, an extrapolation of the
data was performed resulting in 299
based aircraft for 2025.
Another method of projecting based
aircraft is to simply analyze the
historical growth rate of based aircraft
at the airport. Utilizing the historic
annual average growth rate of 1.08 from
1993 to 2004, based aircraft would
reach 237 by 2010, 250 by 2015 and 277
by 2025.
The 1998 Master Plan projected 240
based aircraft by 2010 and 280 by 2020.
Interpolating the 1998 Master Plan,
based aircraft projections yield 259
aircraft in 2015. Extrapolation of the
trend results in a forecast of 302 based
aircraft for 2025.
Based Aircraft Summary
Deciding which forecast or which
combination of forecasts to use to arrive
at a final based aircraft forecast
involves more than just statistical
analysis. Consideration must be given
to the current and future aviation
conditions at the airport in the short
term. For example, it is known that
Mesquite is currently constructing Thangar
and executive hangar space that
can accommodate up to 18 aircraft. It is
also known that the airport
management maintains a ‘waiting list’
2-19
for hangar space. This list is updated
on a yearly basis and currently includes
81 aircraft owners.
Experience indicates that when new
hangars are constructed, those who rent
the space are not always new based
aircraft. Some of them will be aircraft
owners who have used tie-downs or
other facilities at the airport. Typically,
a new hangar facility will attract up to
75 percent new based aircraft. Also,
approximately 50-75 percent of those on
the waiting list will actually sign a
lease when the opportunity becomes
available. Because the airport
management actively contacts all those
on the list, it is fair to assume that
upwards of 75 percent of those on the
waiting list would sign a lease and base
at Mesquite Metro Airport.
In addition, since the last master plan,
Mesquite Metro Airport has improved
in a manner to be more attractive to
aircraft owners, especially corporate
owners. New hangars have been and
are continuing to be built, an executive
terminal building has been completed,
more apron space has been added, and
existing facilities have been and are
continuing to be refurbished. Existing
navigational aids such as the ground
communications outlet (GCO) and the
Automated Weather Observing System
(AWOS) are very much desired by
aircraft owners.
The level of services, amenities and
airfield capabilities of other regional
airports can also be a factor when
projecting based aircraft. As previously
mentioned, Rockwall, Terrell, and
Lancaster all have shorter runways
than Mesquite. Rockwall and Terrell