Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

pected to be provided for the completion of the Suez Canal expansion scheduled for 2010.
Until now, only tankers up to 200,000 dtw are able to pass through the Suez Canal loaded. 32
2. Security and safety stipulations in the tanker segment are likely to become even more stringent
and will necessitate new construction and retrofitting activities. The decision made by
the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to phase out all single-hull tankers by 2015
and tankers without separate ballast tanks as early as 2010 will only generate minimal impulses
for new business. 33 Single-hull tankers have not been built since 1996, have been increasingly
rejected by the multinational oil corporations due to their image, and tend to command
lower charter rates. They are being replaced at an accelerated rate. It is true that almost onethird
of the fleet – primarily large tankers – still consists of single-hull ships. But the order
books show striking parallels regarding capacity and size structure to the inventory that is
being phased out. Clarkson Research expects approximately 15% of the single-hull tankers to
still be in service in 2015. Shortages and a significant need for replacements is therefore hardly
to be anticipated. The danger of excess capacities does not seem too great in the medium
term, however, since the scrapping of old tankers is currently at the lowest rate since 1998 and
is likely to appreciably increase by 2010. This will force scrap prices down. Within the context
of comprehensive security and safety technology, from which the supplier industry is
especially likely to profit, the double hull is only one component. In the future, the requirement
for a second, back-up propulsion unit may be added to the list, to improve the maneuverability
of the vessel and to maintain its operability in case of engine damage. Since
retrofitting is likely to be too expensive, new tanker constructions would profit from this. The
trend toward the automated loading and unloading of tankers will increase, reducing the likelihood
of human operating errors.
3. Since significant oil resources are expected in the polar regions and petroleum exports from
Russia will be climbing, tankers will be used in frozen waters to an increasing extent. A high
ice class necessitates a more powerful propulsion system and a sturdier hull, raising construction
costs by 10%-20%. This investment could pay, however, since the demand for icestrengthened
tankers could climb in the medium term by as much as 30%. 34
Long-term – Heavy seas
The apex of petroleum production is likely to be approached or even reached during the second
half of our forecast period. At this point, the growing demand for oil can no longer be satisfied
by an increase in world production, so that supply becomes a limiting factor. Price hikes lead
to an adjustment in the demand for oil and a decrease in the amount of crude oil that is traded.
Parallel to this, efforts to develop alternatives to oil will be intensified. In addition to the
development of alternative drive systems that use natural gas or hydrogen, these include fuel
production from biomass, gas or coal.
32 See Hansa Hamburg Shipping (2006).
33 See Shipping Intelligence Weekly (2006).
34 See BMBF (2000); Hansa Hamburg Shipping (2006).
102 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4