Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

Summary
Anyone who invested in ships between 2001 and 2002 – at the height of the stock market
crisis – must be delighted now. Enormous profits have accrued. Since the People’s Republic of
China (PRC) became a signatory of the WTO general Free Trade Agreement – in the same
year, 2001 – globalization has become more intense than ever anticipated. Maritime transport
capacities are in short supply, as are port facilities and links with hinterland areas. The “Battle
of the Quays” broke out some time ago. Long docking times, as well as more stringent security
requirements, have led to exploding costs. Doubled energy prices aggravated the situation.
How do the individual links in the logistics chain – the producers and manufacturers, the
forwarding agencies and shipping companies, and the governmental authorities and supranational
organizations – react to these challenges?
What can we expect by the year 2030?
Above all, what opportunities are available to strategic investors?
In our two-volume study entitled Maritime Trade and Transport Logistics, we come to the following
key conclusions: The speed of globalization has surprised many people. Infrastructural
bottlenecks have given rise to a reassessment of strategies throughout the logistics chain – admittedly
rather late. In this respect, hardly any consistent, i.e. reliable, forecast models have
been developed that go beyond 2015. For the period extending past that year, we are forced to
rely on certain assumptions, qualitative statements, and sometimes “creative guesswork.” Just
the same, some stable, long-term trends have emerged of which we want to avail ourselves.
The economic center of gravity is migrating toward Southeast Asia.
Decisions as to the location of production sites are based increasingly on – in addition to low
wages, education and training levels, etc. – a well-functioning transport infrastructure.
Global seaborne trade will continue to grow more rapidly than the average growth rate, al -
though less quickly than it will after 2015. On the other hand, greater expansion in the intraregional
trade flow is expected.
70 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4