Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

Using the findings of the HWWI as a starting point and assuming an annual average growth
rate of 3% for world GDP until 2030, we arrive at a target figure of $93,033 bn, equivalent to
a nominal increase of 109% over the original figure ($44,433 bn for 2005 according to IMF-
World Bank data). It follows that annual public spending for programs will presumably amount
to $1,395 bn (1.5% GDP share) to $2,326 bn (2.5% GDP share), compared with the starting
figures of U.S. $665 bn to $1,109 bn in 2005. Summing up the amounts over the forecast period
of 25 years, one quickly arrives at five-digit billion figures.
3.2.2.1 Asia invests in “hardware”
As in the previous volumes in this series, those on Energy Resources and Water and Nutrition,
we cannot ignore Asia – especially the overriding China factor – when discussing trends in
transport and logistics. As a result of the expected increase in per capita income in many developing
countries in Asia, worldwide transport volume there will be rising much more sharply
than in Europe. For example, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development1 expects
a 2.5% average annual world growth in total merchandise transport in ton-kilometers up
to the year 2030. While increases amounting to 1.9% are forecasted for western Europe (eastern
Europe 2.7%), transport volume is expected to accelerate in India by 4.2% and in China by
3.7% annually.
In most of the Asian countries, transport facilities are still much more limited than in the
Western industrialized countries. This applies despite – or perhaps because of – the dynamic
growth not least in India and China, where there is a huge need for investments in infrastructure.
Skeleton data compiled by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) for Asia up to the year 20152 assume annual investment requirements
of $261 bn. The lion’s share, however, will be devoted to road construction (88%).
1 See World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2004).
2 See ESCAP (2006).
Annual investment requirements in Asia
in $ bn
250
200
150
100
50
0
Fig. 3
Roads Airports Railroads Ports
Source: ESCAP (2006), Berenberg Bank.
Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
79