Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

The mood can become significantly overcast even without a serious slump in world economic
growth. The current world merchant fleet has become considerably younger in recent
years, with average age a little under 12 years. 12 The need for replacements will remain low in
many shipping segments. At the same time, an immense capacity build-up is occurring in the
Asian region. According to a forecast by the OECD, the world capacity for new shipbuilding
will increase by more than 30% by 2012. A surplus will hardly be avoidable in the immediate
future. International cutthroat competition will become even fiercer and will change the
shipbuilding landscape.
Shipyards are not the right place for the private investor. Ongoing improvements in ship
design and equipment offer opportunities to technology leaders in the components industry,
whereby the competitive pressure is likely to increase here, too. Regarding interests in vessels:
An oversupply will initially have an effect on the spot market. Medium-term, this may also
affect long-term charters through renegotiations.
Seaborne merchandise transport today is (primarily) handled by four types of vessels: container
ships (12%), tankers (41%), bulk freighters (36%), and special ships (11%). An examination
of the trends, demand, and size structure for each type shows that the general increase in
size does indeed have a positive effect for small ships.
5.2.2 Container ships
The relatively young container shipping sector is the most dynamic market in world merchandise
transport. Its importance is climbing quickly and continually. Because they use
standardized transport units, container ships can be expedited in much less time and require
less manpower than classic general cargo vessels. In the past 10 years, container transport volume
has grown, at 10% annually, approximately twice as quickly as world trade. 14% of total
maritime trade volume may seem low in comparison with bulk goods. But in the early 1990s,
only a mere 4% was transported this way. By value, container shipping already accounts for a
little under 50% of transported merchandise. 13
An end to the boom is not in sight. The forecasts presented in the first part of this study
conclude that container traffic will continue to show the most vigorous growth in maritime
transport. The relocation of production sites also changes the merchandise structure in favor
of this type of transport. The variety in transported goods is growing, with agricultural products,
wood products, and construction materials now being shipped in containers. The market for
refrigerated containers is growing quickly and outstripping traditional refrigerated cargo vessels.
14 The container is turning into an “all-purpose means of transport.”
12 See Clarkson Research Services (2006).
13 See Hansa International Maritime Journal (2003b); Deutsche Bank Research (2006a).
14 For larger consignments, refrigerated cargo vessels will still have a raison d’être in the future.
The decreasing significance is evident in the 1.3% annual drop in the capacity of the
refrigerated vessel fleet in the past ten years. See Clarkson Research Services (2006).
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