Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) – controlled 35% of the world market; in 2005, this figure was already over 80%. Then they ventured on land, where they encountered private terminal owners, also growing through mergers and acquisitions and now also positioned intercontinentally. Their “top five”– Hutchinson, Port Authority of Singapore (PSA), Dubai Ports World, Maersk, COSCO (and Eurogate as the European market leader) – now control slightly more than 50% of global handling capacities. Some background: Sea transport and especially cargo rates are subject to wide fluctuations due to shipbuilding cycles. The margins have been placed under additional pressure by stricter security and safety requirements and diesel prices that have doubled since 2003. The return on sales is often under 5%, half of what is earned “on land.” The predicted high long-term growth in container transport gives terminal operators a sustainably solid basis for ongoing expansion in revenues and profits, especially if the basic capacity utilization of their operations is practically guaranteed through their joint ventures with shipping companies. In our judgment, we are far from the end of these integration efforts, which can certainly continue to “gain ground.” 5.2 Shipbuilding – Types and trends 5.2.1 Introduction The capacity of the world merchant fleet has grown by 34% in the past ten years, more than 5% annually in the last three years alone. Following an extended slump, substantial world economic growth and increasing globalization have given shipbuilding the greatest upswing in 30 years. Prices for new ships have risen noticeably in all segments. The rapid growth in demand for tonnage had led to a situation in which the prices for used ships were in some cases above the prices for new ones. 6 The immediate future looks promising. More than 5,500 ships were 6 See Clarkson Research Services (2006); Jiafu (2005). World market shares of the top five container terminal operators Fig. 4 Hutchison Dubai Ports after P&O takeover PSA A.P. Møller Maersk COSCO Eurogate % 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Source: Company info., Berenberg Bank estimates. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 91
Breakdown of the world merchant fleet by segment Container ships Bulk goods Fig. 5 Passenger General ships cargo 0.6% 10.3% 11.8% 36.3% 37.4% Crude oil tankers 3.6% Special tankers Other 0.9% 22.2% Bulk goods Source: ISL Bremen (2006a). Source: ISL Bremen (2006), VSM Annual Report 2005. in the shipyard order books at the end of 2005. A doubling of orders on hand in the past three years will ensure shipyard jobs until 2009. 7 These figures alone suggest that there is no reason to worry about the future. Has shipbuilding become a growth industry? But caution is advised! The current boom is not going to last long. History shows that shipbuilding is a markedly cyclical industry. Boom phases are followed by relatively long slumps. Cycle lengths vary between eight and twelve years – a little longer than the classic economic cycle of six to nine years. In addition to world economics, the reinvestment cycle and charter or cargo rates determine the amplitude and length of the shipbuilding cycle. 8 The tonnage supply follows demand, depending on the type of ship, with a delay of 9-24 months. 9 As ships have a lifespan of 20-30 years, it is easy to predict when they will need to be replaced. 10 This means that the current market situation is basically an echo of the past. At the same time, its echo reverberates far into the future. We are thus likely to experience at least two cycles in the next 25 years. The cyclical nature of shipbuilding means an extremely variable workload at the shipyards and highly fluctuating prices for new ships, depending on the market situation. At the same time, shipbuilding as a sector lacks flexibility. Developing capacity requires much time and considerable investments. According to the estimates, between three and five non-shipyard jobs depend upon each job at the shipyard (multiplier effect). 11 This sector is of great strategic significance, especially for developing countries. For this reason, there is an inclination to salvage capacities that have been established through state subsidies in crisis periods. Painful adjustments are politicized and implemented very slowly. The bottom line is that capacities are more quickly increased than cut – so utilization under capacity is more likely in the long term than a shortage of capacity. 7 See VSM (2006). 8 See Colton/Huntzinger (2002); Klovland (2004); First Marine International (2003). 9 Bulk freighters are generally the fastest to build, whereas up to two years must be planned for the construction of an LNG tanker. Besides, sea transport generally follows economic development with a time lag, in the following order: Raw materials transports (bulk goods), tanker trade, and finally container trade. See Hansa International Maritime Journal (2002a). 10 In the case of high cargo or charter rates, more ships are generally ordered; the time needed before delivery then tends to increase. At the same time, there are usually fewer scrappings than would be assumed from the age of the ships. See Klovland (2004). 11 See First Marine International (2003). 92 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 Orders on hand in world shipbuilding by type Container ships Passenger Cargo ships ships 2.7% 7.8% 17.5% 26.8% 22.1% Oil tankers Special tankers
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
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Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
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5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
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Summary Global economic development
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and have consistently modernized an
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The leading exporters and importers
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The three core regions also play a
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The USA continues to be the most im
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Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
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y the European Union are the Euro-M
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Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
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eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
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portant customers for coal in 2004.
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The various regions of the world ar
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Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
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3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
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Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
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4. Maritime trade and port economic
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Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42: 2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44: of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46: Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48: 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50: The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52: The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54: areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56: Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58: Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60: Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61 and 62: 5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 63 and 64: has grown much more than trade volu
Page 65 and 66: ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68: 5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
Page 70 and 71: Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
Page 72 and 73: Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75: 1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77: 2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117: The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 118 and 119: Growth in shares of modes of transp
Page 120 and 121: Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
Page 122 and 123: should especially benefit the share
Page 124 and 125: 6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
Page 126 and 127: 6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
Page 128 and 129: 6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131: 7. Financing transport infrastructu
Page 132 and 133: 300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
Page 134 and 135: The traditional chronology accordin
Page 136 and 137: frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139: World potential for private partici
Page 140 and 141: 250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
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Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
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Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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