Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

completely or transferred to smaller ships. These feeder vessels then set course for smaller
ports. Such distribution requirements will be increasing in the future. 22
With each new large container ship, the demand for feeder vessels will increase even more
(multiplier effect), because at each end of a long haul, as many as five feeders will be needed
to deliver or distribute the cargo.
Since the emphasis of ordering is still on large container ships, the smaller the ships, the higher
the average age of the container fleet. One in four feeder ships is over 15 years old. The scrapping
of tonnage is likely to keep the supply in this class of ships limited in the coming years.
Experts have calculated that by 2015 approximately 2,100 additional feeder ships will be
needed. Since capacities will only be available as of 2010, and because the low profit margins
in this segment provide little incentive for shipyards to build small freighters, the supply is
likely to remain tight in the immediate future.
In addition, the demand for small container ships should profit from the focus we predict on
intraregional trade beginning in 2015. Short sea shipping in the Baltic is gaining in significance
as a result of the eastward enlargement of the EU. Due to its virtually insular location,
Asia offers significant opportunities for growth.
A greater number of orders for feeder ships can be expected in the future. Since Asia’s shipyards
concentrate on large-tonnage vessels, European shipyards could profit especially from this.
The Sietas Werft in Hamburg, for example, is the world leader in the design and construction
of small container ships.
Conclusion: Despite a considerable gain in demand, a surplus of container ships will emerge
beginning in 2010. Medium-sized vessels are likely to be affected even more. Postpanamax ships
will increasingly dominate the long major routes. Small container ships will be used more and
more in feeder service. The gap between large and small ships is likely to widen as of 2015.
5.2.3 Bulk freighters
Along with tankers, bulk freighters for dry bulk products are the backbone of worldwide production,
as they transport the raw materials that are needed. The so-called major bulks – iron
ore, coal, grain, bauxite (feedstock for aluminum) and phosphorus – dominate transport volume,
accounting for two-thirds of it.
The emergent Asian economies’ hunger for raw materials has fueled the need for bulk
freighters. If migration to the cities continues, the long-term perspectives for demand in Asia
will be positive. By 2020, China’s urbanization will have escalated from 45% to 60%. In comparison
with container shipping, however, the growth rates are considerably weaker. The Australian
Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) expects an annual growth rate
22 Smaller ports still have considerable potential regarding containerization, whereas larger ports like the
Port of Hamburg are already at over 95%. See Reise (2004); Deutsche Bank Research (2006a).
Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
97