Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

Pallets, packages, products can be provided with RFID (Radio Frequency Identification)
chips with added functions. The greater storage capacity of the “tags” make it possible to individually
specify the destination of the merchandise and the means of transport necessary to get
it there. With fully automated supply chains and the appropriate software applications, it would
then be conceivable for the packages to independently select and manage the high-bay warehouse,
the forwarding and sorting facility, the type of container, and the shipping route. Up to
the present, just the opposite has been true, with powerful mainframe computers determining
the path the package will take.
3.2.2 Tens of trillions of dollars waiting to be invested
One thing must be obvious in regard to these applications: The investments in planning, time,
and especially funds necessary to achieve these objectives will be enormous.
It would be extremely difficult to specify amounts for these on a global basis, for they do
not exist in aggregative form. Figures are available for individual projects or regions, however,
albeit only up to the year 2015. Both will be delineated here, based on HWWI forecasts (see Volume
A), projections by the World Bank and OECD, national long-term planning, our own
estimates, and the already mentioned “creative guesswork” in the form of qualitative statements.
With this background, as already mentioned, worldwide government expenditures for transport
infrastructure projects amount to 1.5%–2.5% of the respective national GDPs. In countries
with considerable accumulated need, the figures could go far beyond this over a period
of several years. Pertinent investment amounts in 2005 in the PRC and in Thailand, for example,
amounted to approximately 4%; in Vietnam, in fact, over 6% of the economic output.
On the other hand, according to OECD findings, since the mid-1990s, the leading Western
industrialized nations have only been investing barely 1% of their GDP.
World GDP 2005 / 2030
in $ trillions
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fig. 2
2005 2030
78 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
Source: Berenberg Bank.