Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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Part B Perspectives of maritime trade and transport logistics – Strategies for companies and investors Berenberg Bank Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 69
Summary Anyone who invested in ships between 2001 and 2002 – at the height of the stock market crisis – must be delighted now. Enormous profits have accrued. Since the People’s Republic of China (PRC) became a signatory of the WTO general Free Trade Agreement – in the same year, 2001 – globalization has become more intense than ever anticipated. Maritime transport capacities are in short supply, as are port facilities and links with hinterland areas. The “Battle of the Quays” broke out some time ago. Long docking times, as well as more stringent security requirements, have led to exploding costs. Doubled energy prices aggravated the situation. How do the individual links in the logistics chain – the producers and manufacturers, the forwarding agencies and shipping companies, and the governmental authorities and supranational organizations – react to these challenges? What can we expect by the year 2030? Above all, what opportunities are available to strategic investors? In our two-volume study entitled Maritime Trade and Transport Logistics, we come to the following key conclusions: The speed of globalization has surprised many people. Infrastructural bottlenecks have given rise to a reassessment of strategies throughout the logistics chain – admittedly rather late. In this respect, hardly any consistent, i.e. reliable, forecast models have been developed that go beyond 2015. For the period extending past that year, we are forced to rely on certain assumptions, qualitative statements, and sometimes “creative guesswork.” Just the same, some stable, long-term trends have emerged of which we want to avail ourselves. The economic center of gravity is migrating toward Southeast Asia. Decisions as to the location of production sites are based increasingly on – in addition to low wages, education and training levels, etc. – a well-functioning transport infrastructure. Global seaborne trade will continue to grow more rapidly than the average growth rate, al - though less quickly than it will after 2015. On the other hand, greater expansion in the intraregional trade flow is expected. 70 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
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Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
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5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
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Summary Global economic development
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and have consistently modernized an
Page 13 and 14:
The leading exporters and importers
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The three core regions also play a
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The USA continues to be the most im
Page 19 and 20: Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
Page 21 and 22: y the European Union are the Euro-M
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
Page 25 and 26: eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
Page 27 and 28: portant customers for coal in 2004.
Page 29 and 30: The various regions of the world ar
Page 31 and 32: Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
Page 33 and 34: 3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
Page 35 and 36: Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
Page 37 and 38: 4. Maritime trade and port economic
Page 39 and 40: Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42: 2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44: of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46: Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48: 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50: The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52: The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54: areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56: Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58: Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60: Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61 and 62: 5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 63 and 64: has grown much more than trade volu
Page 65 and 66: ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68: 5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
Page 72 and 73: Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75: 1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77: 2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117: The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 118 and 119: Growth in shares of modes of transp
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Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
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should especially benefit the share
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6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
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6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
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6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131:
7. Financing transport infrastructu
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300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
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The traditional chronology accordin
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frastructure program involving priv
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World potential for private partici
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250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
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Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
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Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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