Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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Growth in shares of modes of transport in EU merchandise movement Inland waterway Road Fig. 14 Railroad 9% 3% 46% In its white paper on transport policy, the EU has also presented forecasts going beyond this and up to 2020 and currently expects merchandise transport to increase by approximately 50% between 2000 and 2020 (including hinterland maritime traffic). Above-average growth is expected in short sea shipping (59%) and in road transport (55%), while inland waterway shipping will only gain by a little under 30% and rail goods transport by 13%. According to the EU forecast, too, the shares accounted for by the various modes of transport will basically remain stable in the long term. In its overview on energy and transport, which extends to 2030, on the other hand, the EU64 provides indications regarding the development of the modal split without maritime traffic. Shifts in modes of transport are evident here. However, they do not comply with the EU’s ecopolitical aims. Road transport’s share, at the expense of the railroad, will probably continue to grow to over 77% (2000: 69%). The rail share – although still increasing at an average 64 See EU Commission (2003a). 39% 3% Pipeline Sea Inland waterway Road Railroad 8% 3% 45% Structure of EU-25 merchandise movement (excl. maritime transport) Railroad Fig. 15 Inland waterways 13% 14% 2010 2020 2010 2030 73% Road Railroad Inland waterways 11% 11% 3% 41% Pipeline 78% Sea Source: EU white paper. Road Source: EU Commission. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 117
ate of 0.9% annually – will fall from 17% to over 11% and that of inland waterway traffic from 14% to 11.3%. Among the EU newcomers, the share of rail traffic, at 24%, will still remain noticeably higher, while inland waterway traffic, at only 1%, will remain an as yet untapped potential. Quantitative data on the development of merchandise transport in Europe, especially for Germany, up to the year 2025 is provided by the Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo). 65 Among the conclusions of the study entitled “The Future of Mobility – Scenarios for the Year 2025” are: Assuming that business relations between Germany and the Eastern European countries become more intense, and that Germany increasingly becomes the hub between East and West, East-West merchandise transport will appreciably escalate and, in t, as compared with 2002, will double overall, whereby in the Oder River corridor it will quadruple to 115 mn t, with the Czech Republic, it will triple to 82 mn t, in the Balkan corridor, it will double to 107 mn t, and with German ports on the North Sea, it will increase (+61%) to 290 mn t. Conclusion: All of the studies and forecasts come to the same conclusion: Attempts to draw merchandise transport away from the road will remain wishful thinking and will only be partially successful. Growth in the merchandise transport sector will continue to take place on the road, while railroad and inland waterway transport will only profit to a lesser degree. Inland waterway and rail transport may be able to increase their growth rates, but they will not succeed in altering the relative significance of the individual modes of transport. The reverse conclusions that hold true are: a) The state will intervene to regulate and guide the development of traffic infrastructure and transport. b) Innovations that are environmentally compatible and that conserve resources will be fostered, and companies can be expected to come up with a large number of technological innovations. 65 See Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (2005). Initiators of the study are: BMW Group, Deutsche Bahn AG, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, and MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. 118 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
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Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
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5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
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Summary Global economic development
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and have consistently modernized an
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The leading exporters and importers
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The three core regions also play a
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The USA continues to be the most im
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Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
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y the European Union are the Euro-M
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Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
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eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
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portant customers for coal in 2004.
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The various regions of the world ar
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Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
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3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
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Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
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4. Maritime trade and port economic
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Shares of individual shipping areas
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2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
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of total goods handling in Le Havre
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Shares of total goods handling of t
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4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
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The top 10 of the world’s largest
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The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
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areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
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Modal split in container handling t
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Generally speaking, it should be as
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Box 5 education and research polici
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5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
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has grown much more than trade volu
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ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68: 5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
Page 70 and 71: Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
Page 72 and 73: Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75: 1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77: 2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117: The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 120 and 121: Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
Page 122 and 123: should especially benefit the share
Page 124 and 125: 6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
Page 126 and 127: 6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
Page 128 and 129: 6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131: 7. Financing transport infrastructu
Page 132 and 133: 300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
Page 134 and 135: The traditional chronology accordin
Page 136 and 137: frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139: World potential for private partici
Page 140 and 141: 250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
Page 142 and 143: Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
Page 144 and 145: Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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