Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

as well, the container share of more than 20% lies above the modal split (15%). Approximately
one-third of all goods are transported onward by rail. Inland waterway shipping,
at 10%, is underrepresented, and the container share in inland waterway traffic, at
1.4%, is much lower still. In view of the climbing volume of merchandise handling, the
demands placed on hinterland transport in and around Hamburg will inevitably continue
to rise. The Institut für Transportwirtschaft und Logistik, in a study 69 of merchandise
handling, traffic forecasts, and planned construction projects, has considered possible
bottlenecks for various ports up to the year 2015. Among the conclusions made by experts
for the Port of Hamburg are:
Judging by the current modal split for total merchandise transport, almost 100 mn t
would roll over Hamburg’s roads by truck. in 2015. This would mean an increase to
20,590 truck tours to or from the Port of Hamburg, compared with the current 9,830
trucks per day.
The actual figures, however, could even surpass these. The reasons: the rising share
of containers that are primarily transported by truck, as well as truck transport to the
nearby hinterland (max. 75 km), which exhibit definite economic advantages in this
segment over rail and ship. This could, however, change as our forecast period continues
– assuming a rise in oil prices to $150 or more.
As a result of the expected growth in container traffic, rail transport (over longer
distances) will also increase noticeably. In 2015, 170 trains will be in transit daily solely
for container transport, so that the total number of train movements will increase to
280, as compared with the present 180.
Conclusion: The roads in and around Hamburg will increasingly become a limiting
factor. Rail transport will also become a priority concern for regional transport policy.
In traffic on inland waterways, by comparison, bottlenecks are not expected. The reason:
As the forecast period progresses, it is container transport that will especially drive
growth, which – regardless of its dynamic development – will still remain underrepresented
in inland waterway traffic.
In light of the planned “motorways of the sea” and EU eastward enlargement, the share
of waterways in the short sea shipping segment, in contrast, will increase. Hamburg is already
the most important seaport for Czech foreign trade. This transport is for the most
part conducted by land, whereby rail dominates at 75% (truck: 15%, inland waterway
vessels: 5%). The situation is similar for hinterland transport involving Slovakia, Hungary
and Slovenia. On the other hand, trade with the Baltic countries is predominantly conducted
on seagoing ships. In Poland, the land/sea proportion is about even. The Polish
government also wants to continue to step up its “from road to sea” approach, which
69 See Frass (2006).
120 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4