Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
of 3.5% for dry bulk goods until 2010, which will level off to 2.1% by 2015. In the more distant
future, the authority anticipates annual growth of only 1.2%. 23 Since the main export countries
for ore and coal (Australia, Brazil and South Africa) are far away from the consuming countries,
transport by ship is the only option, and as the importing countries are successively diversifying
their sources, the transport distance may increase slightly in the future.
With a capacity of 342 mn dwt, the 6,631 bulk freighters accounted for the second
highest share of the world merchant fleet, with a good 36% of the tonnage, at the beginning of
2006. 24 Beginning in 2004, a reaction to the commodities boom was noted in the form of new
ship construction and orders for bulk freighters. This was relatively late – but, in the final analysis,
so vigorous that growth in supply was expected to surpass growth in demand in the course
of the year. The market’s sensitivity to sinking trade growth is increasing. Due to the high shipping
rates, however, hardly any bulk freighters have been scrapped recently, so that almost one
in three freighters is overaged. In view of the buoyant demand for replacements and the fact that
shipyards are working to capacity, there is little danger of a surplus in the immediate future.
Assuming that an additional 70-90 mn t of coal and ore will still have to be transported annually,
the gap between growth in cargo volume and tonnage is expected to close more rapidly only
as of 2010. However, the slower globalization tempo we predict for the period beginning in
2015 is likely to affect this sector as well.
There are four size categories in bulk shipping vessels. In regard to operating and investment
expenses, larger ships are generally more cost-effective than smaller ones, hence ships are becoming
progressively larger. The delivery of large freighters increased considerably in recent
years, while the number of the smallest bulk carriers fell. The global order book, which at the
beginning of 2006, with tonnage of 68.4 mn dwt, accounted for about 20% of the current fleet
capacity, points to a continuation of this trend. 25 In contrast to container ships, however, there
are no efforts to push up the size limits, set at 365,000 dwt since 1986.
Annual capacity growth in bulk freighters
in % per annum
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Fig. 8
Source: Clarkson Research Services (2006),
Berenberg Bank.
98 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
23 See Jiafu (2005), Deutsche Bank
Research (2006b).
24 See ISL Bremen (2006a).
25 See Clarkson Research Services (2006),
ISL Bremen (2006c).