Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

15%
10%
5%
0%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Annual capacity growth in the container ship fleet
in the past 20 years in %
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Fig. 6
Source: Clarkson Research Services (2006).
Breakdown of the world container fleet by capacity (in dwt)
14.6%
8.9% 8.5%
0%
0 ≤ 1500 1500-
1999
2000-
2499
2500-
2999
3000-
3499
3500-
3999
4000-
4499
4500-
4999
5000-
5999
6000-
6999
7000-
7999
≥ 8000
Fig. 7
Source: ISL Bremen (2006b).
In the next three years, the supply of container ships will be increasing even more than
demand. At the beginning of 2006, shipyard order books listed 1,230 ships with a container
slot capacity of 4.45 mn TEU. The main emphasis was on large tonnage. With orders currently
at hand for 3,514 ships with a total capacity of 8.14 mn TEU, this means that worldwide slot
capacity will expand by over 50% by 2009. In 2005 alone, the fleet capacity grew by 13.5%.
The high rate of new ship construction has led to a decrease in the average age of the fleet, to
approximately eleven years. Postpanamax ships, in fact, are on average less than five years old.
The number of older ships that are scrapped will remain low. Surplus capacities in global
container shipping seems inevitable beginning in 2010. 15
Size – Continuous growth
9.6%
6.6%
The rising volumes transported in regularly scheduled liner service can be tackled in two ways.
Using additional ships with the same capacity can increase the transport frequency. Drawbacks
are the very high investment volume, an increased capacity utilization risk for the service, and
an only minimal reduction in transport cost per container.
15 See Clarkson Research Services (2006); ISL Bremen (2006b).
94 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
5.1%
11.4%
5.5%
3.7%
10.4%
7.0%
8.6%