Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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5.3 Port forecast The objective of the following projection of the development of European seaports, building on the projection for maritime trade, is to develop two scenarios for the development of handling and the potentials of individual European seaports. To do so, the handling volumes of the largest main European ports will be extrapolated using various approaches. The resulting projection of the development of individual port locations is by no means conclusive. In par - ticular, decisions involving economic and structural policy, such as the construction of the JadeWeserPort, which are not taken into account, may have an influence on the development of neighboring ports. Similarly, the development of individual ports can be influenced by decisions regarding strategic and corporate policy on the part of major shipping companies or major port operators who operate several ports. Furthermore, it is also assumed that the port operators will make the technological and investment measures necessary to avoid long-term capacity bottlenecks and to be able to continue to participate in future increases in handling volumes. Basic forecast Average annual growth rate in Ranking Port total handling Handling* 2030 (2004) by 2030 2030 in 1,000 t 1 (1) Rotterdam 3.5% 805,916 2 (2) Antwerp 5.0% 486,388 3 (3) Hamburg 6.3% 486,115 4 (13) Bremen ports 6.2% 219,065 5 (9) Algeciras 5.7% 217,412 6 (29) Gioia Tauro 7.9% 210,246 7 (5) Le Havre 3.8% 191,321 8 (23) Valencia 6.2% 153,363 9 (4) Marseilles 2.0% 151,187 10 (35) Felixstowe 7.2% 141,398 11 (21) Barcelona 5.1% 133,005 12 (12) Genoa 3.8% 122,077 13 (8) London 3.0% 114,134 14 (18) Southampton 3.3% 89,234 15 (16) Taranto 2.8% 80,682 16 (10) Amsterdam 1.7% 77,475 17 (11) Dunkerque 1.8% 74,179 18 (7) Tees & Hartlepool 1.1% 71,371 19 (6) Grimsby & Immingham 0.7% 69,631 20 (20) Göteborg 2.3% 66,284 * Handling without container weight Fig. 39 Source: Eurostat (2006), HWWI forecast. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 65
5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic scenario, the regional port handling volumes for 2004 are extrapolated with the help of the overall European rates determined through the forecast of maritime trade. Since the development in containerized goods will show especially high relative growth rates, ports with extensive container handling operations are likely to profit from this trend. Ports that primarily handle bulk goods, on the other hand, are expected to be at a disadvantage. Fig. 39 shows the 20 ports with the highest handling volumes in the year 2030, according to the HWWI forecast, with their position in 2004 in parentheses. The winners in this scenario are for the most part ports with high container handling volumes, such as Gioia Tauro, the largest British port, Felixstowe, or the Bremen ports. The three large universal ports in the North Range, Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam, however, will be strengthening their top positions in absolute terms in this scenario. Hamburg, which ranked behind Antwerp in total handling volume in 2004 as a result of considerably reduced liquid bulk cargo handling, will almost be able to catch up. Alternative forecast 66 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 Average annual growth rates Ranking Port Total handling Container handling Handling* 2030 (2004) up to 2030 up to 2030 2030 in 1,000 t 1 (1) Rotterdam 3.6% 8.1% 825,871 2 (3) Hamburg 6.6% 8.3% 527,724 3 (2) Antwerp 5.0% 7.9% 485,853 4 (9) Algeciras 5.7% 7.9% 217,903 5 (13) Bremen ports 6.0% 7.6% 205,396 6 (29) Gioia Tauro 7.2% 7.2% 179,703 7 (5) Le Havre 3.3% 7.4% 169,188 8 (35) Felixstowe 7.7% 8.4% 159,496 9 (23) Valencia 6.2% 7.9% 155,303 10 (4) Marseilles 1.5% 7.5% 133,400 11 (21) Barcelona 5.1% 7.9% 132,925 12 (12) Genoa 3.7% 7.7% 118,438 13 (8) London 2.6% 7.3% 104,671 14 (18) Southampton 3.8% 8.8% 102,214 15 (16) Taranto 3.1% 8.4% 86,032 16 (10) Amsterdam 1.6% 7.9% 75,228 17 (11) Dunkerque 1.6% 8.8% 70,436 18 (7) Tees & Hartlepool 1.0% 6.9% 69,851 19 (6) Grimsby & Immingham 0.6% 6.8% 67,645 20 (25) Bilbao 2.3% 7.6% 58,104 * Handling without container weight Fig. 40 Source: Eurostat (2006), HWWI forecast.
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
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Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
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5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
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Summary Global economic development
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and have consistently modernized an
Page 13 and 14:
The leading exporters and importers
Page 15 and 16: The three core regions also play a
Page 17 and 18: The USA continues to be the most im
Page 19 and 20: Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
Page 21 and 22: y the European Union are the Euro-M
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
Page 25 and 26: eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
Page 27 and 28: portant customers for coal in 2004.
Page 29 and 30: The various regions of the world ar
Page 31 and 32: Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
Page 33 and 34: 3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
Page 35 and 36: Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
Page 37 and 38: 4. Maritime trade and port economic
Page 39 and 40: Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42: 2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44: of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46: Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48: 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50: The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52: The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54: areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56: Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58: Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60: Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61 and 62: 5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 63 and 64: has grown much more than trade volu
Page 65: ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 70 and 71: Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
Page 72 and 73: Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75: 1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77: 2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
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The highest growth rates in air fre
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Growth in shares of modes of transp
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Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
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should especially benefit the share
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6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
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6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
Page 128 and 129:
6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
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7. Financing transport infrastructu
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300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
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The traditional chronology accordin
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frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139:
World potential for private partici
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250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
Page 142 and 143:
Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
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Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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