Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

LNG tankers – Elite class with potential
Studies predict a rosy future for liquefied natural gas. By 2015, LNG trade should double, growing
at an annual rate of up to 10%. In 25 years, half of natural gas trade is likely to be handled
by LNGs. The number of LNG exporting and importing countries will rise considerably. 39
The LNG tanker fleet is still of manageable size, but has been growing very quickly recently.
In March of 2006, 200 ships of this type – 5% of the total tanker capacity – were sailing the
seas. The excess capacity situation that resulted from growth in 2005 has given way due to the
opening of new terminals. However, the order books most recently listed 145 ships to be delivered
by 2009, which would result in a doubling of the current volume capacity. 40 At the end
of the decade, this is likely to cause greater pressure on charter rates, should there be significant
delays in putting newly operating terminals into operation.
Drewry estimates that, taking into account the projects currently planned or under construction
as well as present fleet development, an additional 79 LNG tankers will still be
needed by 2011 ⁄ 2012. By this time, China will have acquired the necessary know-how and de -
ve loped the construction capacities for the technologically sophisticated tankers. This will
result in surplus capacities, which will bring pressure to bear on new construction prices and,
with a time lag, charter rates. It should be considered that LNG tankers offer a very long service
life of 40 years. In view of the current average fleet age of 13 years, with ongoing expansion
of the fleet beginning in 2015, only a limited number of new vessels are likely to be built.
The following trends can be expected in the future: 41
Increase in size: Whereas three years ago the capacity limit was still 155,000 m3 , by now ships
with a loading volume of up to 250,000 m3 are being ordered. As the existing terminals are
often not able to handle very large tankers, there are limits on such increases in size for the
moment. Once terminals have been expanded, the average size is likely to climb, since the
key routes are relatively long. Very large tankers require their own liquefaction equipment,
since during transport more excess gas is produced than can be used for propulsion. Despite
the high cost, a liquefaction plant on board could become widely accepted, because the construction
of regasification plants and storage tanks on land has met with resistance from environmentalists.
Should this occur, the turbine technology which has been dominant up to
now is likely to be rapidly supplanted by the more energy-efficient diesel-electric drive.
Tank technologies: Most widely used and cost-effective in construction is the spherical tank
system (called Moss tankers). The modern membrane technology is expensive and complicated.
However, a tanker equipped with this technology can load approximately 8% more
LNG than a Moss tanker. The future belongs to membrane technology, attractive due to its
lower operating costs.
Cost degression: According to the Gas Technology Institute, the costs for gas liquefaction have
dropped by 35%-50% in the past ten years. LNG tankers are also less expensive now. A Moss
39 See EIA (2003), IEA (2005), Gaughan (2005).
40 See Hansa International Maritime Journal (2005b), Clarkson Research Services (2006).
41 See Gaughan (2005), Morita et al (2003), Schröder (2006).
Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
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