Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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Annual GDP growth rates in % Fig. 34 Up to 2015 Up to 2030 Latin America 4.1 4.4 Middle East/North Africa 3.7 3.9 Sub-Sahara 4.4 4.5 South Asia 5.5 5.4 East Asia/Pacific Region 6.1 6.3 Former European 3.7 4 Eastern Bloc and Asian Soviet countries Industrialized countries 3 3 Source: FAO (2002). Annual growth in bilateral trade p.a. to 2030 (annual growth rates) Fig. 35 Fig. 36 Latin South East Asia Sub- Middle East/ Transition Industrial. America Asia + Pacific Sahara North Africa countries* countries Latin America 8.5% 9.7% 10.5% 8.7% 8.0% 8.1% 7.2% South Asia 10.9% 11.8% 9.9% 9.2% 9.3% 8.4% East Asia/Pacific 12.6% 10.7% 10.1% 10.1% 9.2% Sub-Sahara 8.9% 8.2% 8.3% 7.4% Middle East/North Africa 7.6% 7.6% 6.7% Transition countries* 7.7% 6.8% Industrialized countries 5.7% * Former Eastern European Bloc and Asian Soviet countries Trade between regions and EU-25 Source: HWWI forecast. Latin South Sub- Transition East Asia Middle East/ Industrial. EU-25 America Asia Sahara countries + Pacific North Africa countries EU trade 2005 104.3 55.3 91.3 366.9 420.6 233.7 953.5 2,050.0 in bn euros Annual real growth 7.2% 8.4% 7.4% 6.9% 9.2% 6.7% 5.9% 6.0% rate (forecast) EU trade 2030 595.1 416.2 542.6 1,966.6 3,824.0 1,191.4 3,999.1 8,913.4 in bn euros Source: Comext (2006), HWWI forecast. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 61
has grown much more than trade volume. The statistical analysis of European trade data shows that a 1% increase in trade in euros corresponds with an increase in volume of appro - ximately 0.5%. Extrapolated, trade growth of 6.6% in Europe would mean a 3.3% increase in trade volume. The reasons that trade value grows more quickly than trade volume are related to technical progress, the transformation processes of the economies of the EU and its trade partners, and the resulting changes in trade structures. To an increasing extent, on the one hand, many commodity-producing countries carry out the initial processing themselves, so that less of the raw materials are imported to Europe, but, instead, more processed or semi-finished products. On the other hand, the heavy mining and steel-producing industries hardly play a role in Eu - rope any more. Furthermore, the Asian developing countries, in particular, are successfully and increasingly exporting consumer products of all kinds to Europe, and these have greater value than raw materials, but low weight. The boom in container traffic mirrors this development impressively. Assuming an annual growth in trade volume of 3.3%, this will result in an increase in total trade volume of 125% in the next 25 years. To estimate the volume of sea trade on the basis of the predicted trade volume, it is assumed that the relative shares of cargo conveyed by the various modes of transport will remain constant in the long term. Historical observations substantiate this assumption for the time frame of the forecast. Risks only exist for liquid bulk goods, since pipelines to be built in the future could supersede the sea transport now being used. For all other goods, however, maritime transport is currently expected to remain the dominant means of transport for decades to come. It is also assumed that bottlenecks in fleet capacities will be temporary at most. Based on this assumption, the volume of shipments by sea will be increasing by 3.3% annually. Growth in individual groups of goods, especially the dry bulk goods, liquid bulk goods, and containerized goods considered here, will naturally show different growth patterns, due to differing trade developments, also in sea shipping. 57 Fig. 37 shows the predicted development for dry and liquid bulk goods and for containerized goods. Fig. 38 shows the corresponding annual growth rates. 58 Striking is the strong expansion in European container traffic and the stagnation shown in liquid bulk goods. The following considerations serve as a basis for the trade forecast for individual goods: The commodities that currently dominate the trade volume, such as coal, oil, grain, and iron ore, are considered separately. For the large group composed of other goods, like non-ferrous metals and ore, chemicals, or special industrial goods such as vehicles, the trends of the past years are 57 The classification of individual commodities in the trade statistics into cargo or ship types, which is indispensable for the projection of trade volume to be presented here, is fraught with numerous difficulties and uncertainties. On the one hand, new technologies furnish new transport options. The conventional shipment of piece goods, for example, has been practically displaced by containers in the past three decades, an unusual situation. On the other hand, the decision as to how a commodity should be shipped is dependent upon numerous factors, such as package size or distance, so that the container might be more cost-effective in one case, while in another ro-ro service might be the better option. For the further presentation, agricultural commodities were therefore grouped with dry bulk goods and cooking oil with liquid bulk goods. Processed foods, etc., on the other hand, are calculated with the containerized goods. Industrial raw materials are entered with the dry bulk goods. Gas and oil are considered liquid bulk goods. Industrial products are entered as containerized goods. Only the group consisting of chemicals is considered separately for the simulation, due to its heterogeneity. 58 Not included is the very heterogeneous commodity group of chemicals, which is grouped with all types of cargo. Road vehicles, machines, etc., for which special ship types exist, are also entered separately. 62 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
Page 5 and 6:
Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
Page 7 and 8:
5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
Page 9 and 10:
Summary Global economic development
Page 11 and 12: and have consistently modernized an
Page 13 and 14: The leading exporters and importers
Page 15 and 16: The three core regions also play a
Page 17 and 18: The USA continues to be the most im
Page 19 and 20: Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
Page 21 and 22: y the European Union are the Euro-M
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
Page 25 and 26: eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
Page 27 and 28: portant customers for coal in 2004.
Page 29 and 30: The various regions of the world ar
Page 31 and 32: Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
Page 33 and 34: 3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
Page 35 and 36: Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
Page 37 and 38: 4. Maritime trade and port economic
Page 39 and 40: Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42: 2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44: of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46: Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48: 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50: The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52: The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54: areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56: Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58: Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60: Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61: 5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 65 and 66: ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68: 5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
Page 70 and 71: Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
Page 72 and 73: Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75: 1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77: 2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113:
first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115:
6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117:
The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 118 and 119:
Growth in shares of modes of transp
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Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
Page 122 and 123:
should especially benefit the share
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6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
Page 126 and 127:
6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
Page 128 and 129:
6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131:
7. Financing transport infrastructu
Page 132 and 133:
300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
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The traditional chronology accordin
Page 136 and 137:
frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139:
World potential for private partici
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250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
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Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
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Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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