Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

Summary
Global economic development in the past decades has been characterized by a rapidly progressing
intensification in world trade and international division of labor. In recent decades,
as a result of the expansive development of international merchandise trade, cargo shipping
has been one of the fastest growing economic sectors. The progressive global integration processes,
the future reduction in trade barriers, and the expected increase in prosperity in numerous
regions of the world will also call for a marked expansion in world trade and cargo shipping.
This designates maritime logistics as an economic sector with favorable perspectives for
development. The present study – using as a starting point a forecast of the development of
world trade up to the year 2030 – deals with development trends in cargo shipping and the related
impact on ports in the European trade areas.
An HWWI forecast model shows an average annual real growth rate for EU foreign trade
of 6.6%, while predicting that trade with East Asia and the Pacific region will yield higher
growth (+9.2% p.a.) than that with the industrialized countries (+5.9% p.a.) The forecast as -
sumes that, with a 6.6% annual growth rate in trade in the EU, the trade volume determining
transport volume will increase by 3.3%. With an unchanged modal split in the movement
of goods, this would mean that the overall volume of shipment by sea would increase by
approximately 125% between 2005 and 2030. Since the proportion of containerized goods will
continue to climb appreciably, ports at which container shipments account for a large share
of the total goods handled will profit especially from the growth in maritime transport. By
the year 2030, above-average growth in total cargo handling could therefore be recorded, for
example, at the ports of Bremen, Felixstowe, Gioia Tauro, Valencia and Hamburg.
8 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4