Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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6.2.4 Support for intermodal networking Whether the accelerated expansion of railroads and inland waterway systems will succeed is questionable. In the past, due to shortages in funds, such ideas have usually remained empty promises. In view of this, the EU Commission is pursuing the goal of encouraging intermodal merchandise transport, that is, the integration of various modes of transport, so that rail and water transport can profit from gains on the road. The linkage of various modes of transport gives logistics a key role (see Chapter 1). The EU fosters intermodal transport through its “Marco Polo” program, which networks the various modes of transport, so that alternatives to classical road transport can be developed. For this program, approximately €450 mn has been earmarked for use until 2013. To prevent farther-reaching economic consequences though the expected bottleneck in the logistics chain, the German government is also supporting intelligent interplay between road, waterway and railroad in a networked transport system. It is therefore promoting combined transport (CT) 73 by means of regulatory and fiscal policy measures, as well as financial allocations through various government support programs. According to the Plan for Federal Traffic Routes, an increase in CT of 89.7 mn t by 2015 is to be expected, as compared with 46.1 mn t in 2005. 6.3 Consequences for companies and investors The continuing growth in goods and transport will result in a gigantic need for infrastructure investments, especially in Asia (see Chapter 3.2.2). There are many ways an investor can participate in this trend, such as infrastructure funds (see Chapter 7), certificates, or selected specific securities. The transport sector will also be developing successively into a high-tech sector. This will open up new business opportunities and will give the investor a multitude of new ways of sharing in the boom in merchandise transport by investing in transport and logistics companies, as well as construction and technology firms. 6.3.1 The path is the goal: Infrastructure investments The OECD estimates that between 2010 and 2030 annual worldwide infrastructure investments in road transport will amount to $220-290 mn, the lion’s share for the maintenance, expansion and upgrading of existing links. An annual investment volume of $50-60 bn will be channeled into the rail sector (see Chapter 7). Specifically, capital expenditures and potential investments appear to center around the following: In the road sector, in view of environmental concerns, in addition to expansion, upgrading and maintenance, the focus will be especially on infrastructure measures. These include noise and wind protection barriers, sound insulation walls, and low-noise paving. 73 Combined transport is the transport of goods in trucks or in individual shipping units (especially swap bodies, containers, or semi-trailers), whereby transport over most of the total distance is carried out by rail, inland waterway ships, or seagoing ships, and over the rest, the shortest possible portion, by motor vehicle. During the transfer from one mode of transport to another, it is not the goods themselves, but the packed transport units, that are reloaded, or else the packed trucks are transported on railroad cars (rolling road) or ships. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 125
The anticipated use of larger and heavier trucks74 will also lead to new requirements in road infrastructure to suit these dimensions. In Germany, for example, weight may cause problems on numerous bridges and overpasses. One-third of the approximately 36,000 overpasses, in fact, date from the 1950s. Focuses in the rail sector will be: Capacity expansion in rail transport (upgrading of lines, line improvements, parallel tracks for passenger and freight trains, lengthening of holding or side tracks). Electrification of the rail networks. Experts expect increases in efficiency of more than 40% from complete electrification, which is to be concluded by 2020 within the EU-15, but will go beyond our forecast period for the newcomer nations. Research for Germany has shown that the electrification of a line which permits a higher speed than the old traction system can increase its capacity by about 10%. There will also be a definite boost in the demand for locomotives and rolling stock, as well as for special freight cars needed for the expansion of combined transport. Appreciable investments in handling equipment are also expected in connection with CT. Focuses in shipping will be: The expansion of existing waterways (deepening, straightening, canalization), as well as inland waterways that are no longer used and the creation of new river connections. Investments in bridge heights, 75 operation of locks, and ship hoists. Links between the ports and the rail network, expansion of handling and loading equipment. Modernization of the inland waterway fleet (some vessels over 40 years old). Construction of safer, faster, and lower-emission ships, also to comply with the expected more stringent environmental standards. The growing demand for smaller, shallow-draft ships for inland shipping, in view of climate change. For the investor, the major construction companies like Bilfinger Berger und Hochtief should be mentioned, but also Cemex, Heidelzement, Holeim and Lafarge. Germany’s largest construction group, Strabag, recently re-positioned itself in the European railroad construction sector by purchasing sector specialist Eichholz. Family-owned up to now, the Eichholz Group is known as one of the leading railroad construction specialists in Germany. Companies active in the rail vehicle and technology segments include Alstom, Bombardier, Siemens and Vossloh. It is the Dutch companies, such as BAM and Heijmans (see also Chapter 5.1, A digression: Dredging and filling), that traditionally have experience in the waterways construction segment. 74 The so-called gigaliners will be 20 t heavier and 6.5 m longer than the 40-tonners currently permitted on German roads. Even though their use is still disputed, experts believe that they would reduce the number of trucks on the highways by one-third, at the same time considerably cutting fuel consumption. Two megatrucks can transport as much as three 40-tonners, but use up to 30% less fuel per t of payload. 75 In container transport between Magdeburg and Berlin, for example, since vertical clearance is too low, containers can only be transported in a single layer, although transport of up to six containers side by side and five high is possible. 126 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
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Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
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5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
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Summary Global economic development
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and have consistently modernized an
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The leading exporters and importers
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The three core regions also play a
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The USA continues to be the most im
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Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
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y the European Union are the Euro-M
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Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
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eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
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portant customers for coal in 2004.
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The various regions of the world ar
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Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
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3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
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Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
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4. Maritime trade and port economic
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Shares of individual shipping areas
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2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
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of total goods handling in Le Havre
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Shares of total goods handling of t
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4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
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The top 10 of the world’s largest
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The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
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areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
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Modal split in container handling t
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Generally speaking, it should be as
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Box 5 education and research polici
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5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
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has grown much more than trade volu
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ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
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5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
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Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
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Among the various modes of transpor
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1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77: 2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117: The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 118 and 119: Growth in shares of modes of transp
Page 120 and 121: Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
Page 122 and 123: should especially benefit the share
Page 124 and 125: 6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
Page 128 and 129: 6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131: 7. Financing transport infrastructu
Page 132 and 133: 300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
Page 134 and 135: The traditional chronology accordin
Page 136 and 137: frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139: World potential for private partici
Page 140 and 141: 250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
Page 142 and 143: Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
Page 144 and 145: Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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