Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

ate of 0.9% annually – will fall from 17% to over 11% and that of inland waterway traffic from
14% to 11.3%. Among the EU newcomers, the share of rail traffic, at 24%, will still remain
noticeably higher, while inland waterway traffic, at only 1%, will remain an as yet untapped
potential.
Quantitative data on the development of merchandise transport in Europe, especially for
Germany, up to the year 2025 is provided by the Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo). 65
Among the conclusions of the study entitled “The Future of Mobility – Scenarios for the Year
2025” are:
Assuming that business relations between Germany and the Eastern European countries become
more intense, and that Germany increasingly becomes the hub between East and West,
East-West merchandise transport will appreciably escalate and, in t, as compared with 2002, will
double overall, whereby
in the Oder River corridor it will quadruple to 115 mn t,
with the Czech Republic, it will triple to 82 mn t,
in the Balkan corridor, it will double to 107 mn t, and
with German ports on the North Sea, it will increase (+61%) to 290 mn t.
Conclusion: All of the studies and forecasts come to the same conclusion: Attempts to draw merchandise
transport away from the road will remain wishful thinking and will only be partially
successful. Growth in the merchandise transport sector will continue to take place on the road,
while railroad and inland waterway transport will only profit to a lesser degree. Inland waterway
and rail transport may be able to increase their growth rates, but they will not succeed in
altering the relative significance of the individual modes of transport.
The reverse conclusions that hold true are:
a) The state will intervene to regulate and guide the development of traffic infrastructure and
transport.
b) Innovations that are environmentally compatible and that conserve resources will be
fostered, and companies can be expected to come up with a large number of technological
innovations.
65 See Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (2005). Initiators of the study are: BMW Group,
Deutsche Bahn AG, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, and MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG in collaboration
with the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
118 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4