Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

into effect, the German BDI (Federation of German Industries) expects the 25 EU states, with
4.75 mn affected companies, to incur initial costs of up to €48 bn and annual follow-up costs
of €36 bn.
Our view of these matters is as follows:
A 100% protection from terrorist threats will never exist.
The USA threatens to overreact and to sacrifice the principles of free world trade in its
attempts to achieve national security. The effect is isolationist.
Resistance to the transfer of important U.S. port operations to the management of Dubai
Ports World can be understood in this context.
The Doha free trade agreement also failed in the summer of 2006 not least as a result of the
uncompromising position taken by the USA.
Almost simultaneously, the USA announced that it will review its most-favored-nation agreement
with India, Brazil, and eleven other countries.
All things considered, we regard this as a possible turning point ( or point of no return) in general
efforts toward globalization. This could amount to the nucleus of an incipient regionalization
in world trade. We see this as a convincing argument for attaching especially great weight
to growth in intraregional transport after 2015.
84 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4