Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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2. The macroeconomic significance of the transport sector Providing transport-related infrastructure is still considered one of government’s genuine responsibilities. After all, a fully functional port, rail and road system ensures a high degree of productivity, growth and employment for an economy. The situation is similar for the matter of “security,” which has assumed an altered, indeed a global dimension, at least since the events that took place in the United States on September 11, 2001. According to World Bank estimates, depending on the country, as much as 10% of the GDP accrue along the logistics chain. It should be kept in mind that economies without direct access to the sea often incur 50% higher logistics costs than seafaring nations. The absolute figures are therefore not always as significant as a tightly-meshed, well-functioning transportation network. Closely connected with the added value potential is the effect on employment. Between 2.5% and 11.5% of all employees work in the freight and shipping industry. In Germany, 2.6 million people are employed by 60,000 companies in this sector. Not only was Germany the world champion in exports in 2005, but its logistics sector was the world’s largest. On a national level, only the retail trade and the automotive industry were more important (Federal Statistical Office). As an example, the Port of Hamburg provides work directly or indirectly for some 154,000 people. Investments planned up to the year 2015, amounting to up to €1.5 bn, could result in an additional 14,000 jobs. The relative importance of this sector is also high in the USA. In 2005, according to figures published by the American Association of Port Authorities, the port sector alone provided approximately 4 million jobs. Added value of $723 bn, or 6.6 % of the GDP, accrued. This means that investments in ports, roads, railroad systems and airports are particularly relevant, generally amounting to 1.5%–2.5% of the GDP. The classic investment multiplier generates additional growth through mushrooming effects. Figures have shown steadily over a long period of time that the demand for transport services increases 1.5 times as quickly as the GDP itself. For many countries, it is therefore of paramount macroeconomic importance to solve the bottleneck problems in their ports and land connections as quickly as possible. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 75
3. Reactions and measures at the state level – Various approaches 3.1 Establishing the framework In 2006, a number of governmental commissions and EU, OECD, UN, ASEAN and ADB (Asean Development Bank) committees were engaged in discussions centering around the future of the global transport and logistics structure. They conferred on the characteristics of a desirable transport system, one which will meet future requirements. Core concerns repeatedly included the elimination of: infrastructure overloads, environmental pollution (Kyoto Protocol), and defense against terrorist threats. Targeted under the collateral conditions were: globalization/increased competitive pressure, and the soaring crude oil and energy prices, an integrated (also cross-border) transportation network designed for optimal utilization/ linkage of oceans, rivers, roads and rail systems (transmodality), greater energy efficiency, and globally uniform security standards. 3.2 Enormous investment decisions How much could it cost to create railroad transport corridors from Europe via Central Asia to the East Asian Pacific regions? How much could it cost to expand the Chinese road network by 400,000 km? And how much complexity in planning and what software requirements would be necessary to include upstream and downstream transport, to standardize the necessary shipping documents, to incorporate toll collection system billing in the handling of payments, to ensure that transport can at all times be managed/tracked, and to design the entire system so that it is transnational? 3.2.1 Some visions? Automatic highways Roads in Asia could become rather congested. The IMF estimates that automobile density in Asia (except Japan) will amount to 570 mn units (270 cars per 1,000 inhabitants) by the year 2030, increasing from 81 mn cars in 2002. New transportation concepts will be essential, if only to limit pollution levels. To promote transport efficiency, too, high priority is also being given to the prevention of waiting time and ensuring optimal traffic flow. 76 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
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»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
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Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
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5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
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Summary Global economic development
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and have consistently modernized an
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The leading exporters and importers
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The three core regions also play a
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The USA continues to be the most im
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Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
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y the European Union are the Euro-M
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Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
Page 25 and 26: eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
Page 27 and 28: portant customers for coal in 2004.
Page 29 and 30: The various regions of the world ar
Page 31 and 32: Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
Page 33 and 34: 3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
Page 35 and 36: Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
Page 37 and 38: 4. Maritime trade and port economic
Page 39 and 40: Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42: 2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44: of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46: Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48: 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50: The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52: The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54: areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56: Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58: Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60: Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61 and 62: 5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 63 and 64: has grown much more than trade volu
Page 65 and 66: ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68: 5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
Page 70 and 71: Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
Page 72 and 73: Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75: 1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 78 and 79: Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81: Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117: The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 118 and 119: Growth in shares of modes of transp
Page 120 and 121: Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
Page 122 and 123: should especially benefit the share
Page 124 and 125: 6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
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6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
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6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
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7. Financing transport infrastructu
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300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
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The traditional chronology accordin
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frastructure program involving priv
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World potential for private partici
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250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
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Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
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Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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