Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

Handling growth in Europe’s main ports
(Ports handling more than 1 mn t)
in mn tons
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Fig. 37
Fig. 38
+85%
2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030
Solid Liquid Container
bulk goods bulk goods goods
Source: Eurostat (2006), HWWI forecast.
Growth rates of European sea transport by type of cargo
Dry bulk goods Liquid bulk goods Containerized goods
Increase by 2030 85.2% 10.5% 620.6%
Annual increase 2.4% 0.4% 7.9%
extrapolated. Dominant in the group of dry bulk goods are the so-called “five major bulks”:
coal, iron ore, bauxite/alumina, natural phosphate and grain, whereby in this subgroup coal,
iron ore and grain account for the greatest portion of the weight. The liquid bulk goods comprise
primarily crude oil and petroleum products, as well as liquid gas.
The development of oil and coal transports is essentially determined by the demand for
energy. In a 2005 HWWI-Berenberg study, various scenarios for long-term development in
the markets for energy resources were presented. 59 The basic scenario from this study serves as
the grounds for the forecast of transport volume. In this forecast, it is assumed that, as the
result of price increases for energy resources and energy-saving technical progress, worldwide
demand for energy will grow at a rate that is 2.1% lower than that of production of goods.
There are considerable differences in the growth rates of the individual energy resources: The
demand for oil and coal grows at a yearly rate of almost 1.7%, much more slowly than that of
gas (2.4%) and alternative energy sources (3.3%). Due to the differing growth rates, the share
of oil in total primary energy consumption sinks from 37% to 33%, and the share of coal from
26.5% to almost 24%. The share of gas, in contrast, increases from 24% to 26% and that of
other energies from over 12% to almost 17%. The demand for energy is not only unequally
distributed among the various energy sources, but demonstrates considerable regional diffe-
59 See Strategy 2030 – Energy commodities.
+10%
+620%
Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
63