Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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Strategy 2030 – Capital and life in the next generation »Everything flows« (HERACLITUS OF EPHESUS, GREEK PHILOSOPHER, ABOUT 540‒480 B.C.) The world is advancing toward a new era. Far-reaching macroeconomic and geopolitical trends will be changing both the lives of people in the next generation and the ways in which they manage their finances. These include the new dimension of religiously motivated terrorist threats to Western democracies, the introduction of the euro as an international currency coupled with the expansion of the European Union, the emergence of new major economic players in Asia (People’s Republic of China, India) with inevitable consequences for the commodities and capital markets, and especially the challenges of a rapidly aging population in many industrialized nations with all of its ramifications for public finances, social systems, labor organizations, location decisions, etc. All of this is taking place in the context of continued leaps in technology in a globalizing economy. Consequently, political, social, technological and economic changes are occurring with increasing rapidity. Furthermore, they have a reciprocal effect – sometimes intensifying but sometimes inhibiting one another – and thus seem more and more complex and less tangible. This is all the more so because they extend far into the future, in the case of demographic change even across generations. Despite all of this incertitude, one thing is clear: Politicians, entrepreneurs, and private individuals must consider these profound changes as they plan for the future. Seeking out navigation signposts, identifying them as such, and describing possible routes as well as destinations certainly constitute a rewarding endeavor. The series entitled Strategy 2030 – Capital and Life in the Next Generation, jointly published by the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) and Berenberg Bank, is dedicated to this effort. It unites the expertise of economic analysts recognized beyond the borders of our country and the comprehensive experience of a private bank that holds a leading position in asset management. We hope to have provided readers with a study that is interesting and useful. Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 3
Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8 1. Introduction 9 2. Development, structure and determinants of international trade 11 2.1 Development and structure of world merchandise trade 11 2.2 Internal and external foreign trade of the European Union 14 2.3 Determinants of international trade 17 2.3.1 Main results of international trade theory 17 2.3.2 Liberalization of trade 19 2.3.3 Impact of transport costs 20 3. Development, structure and determinants of international seaborne trade 23 3.1 Development and structure of world seaborne trade 23 3.2 Maritime foreign trade of the European Union 27 3.3 Determinants of maritime trade 32 4. Maritime trade and port economics 36 4.1 The European shipping areas 36 4.2 Europe’s ports at a glance 38 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Europe 46 4.4 Europe’s ports in the world economy 47 4.5 Determinants of port development 51 5. HWWI forecast 60 5.1 World trade 60 5.2 Maritime trade 60 5.3 Port forecast 65 5.3.1 Basic scenario 66 5.3.2 Alternative scenario 67 4 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
Page 1 and 2: Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
Page 3: »Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
Page 7 and 8: 5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
Page 9 and 10: Summary Global economic development
Page 11 and 12: and have consistently modernized an
Page 13 and 14: The leading exporters and importers
Page 15 and 16: The three core regions also play a
Page 17 and 18: The USA continues to be the most im
Page 19 and 20: Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
Page 21 and 22: y the European Union are the Euro-M
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
Page 25 and 26: eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
Page 27 and 28: portant customers for coal in 2004.
Page 29 and 30: The various regions of the world ar
Page 31 and 32: Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
Page 33 and 34: 3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
Page 35 and 36: Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
Page 37 and 38: 4. Maritime trade and port economic
Page 39 and 40: Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42: 2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44: of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46: Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48: 4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50: The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52: The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54: areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56:
Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58:
Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60:
Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61 and 62:
5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 63 and 64:
has grown much more than trade volu
Page 65 and 66:
ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68:
5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
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Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
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Among the various modes of transpor
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1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77:
2. The macroeconomic significance o
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Parking aids and cruise controls ar
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Using the findings of the HWWI as a
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In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
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slipped down to a lower middle-clas
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4. Reorganization of the logistics
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In the long term, however, the mark
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Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
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Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
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The mood can become significantly o
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The second method, using larger shi
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completely or transferred to smalle
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Since the large capesize freighters
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(1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
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The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
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LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
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dern technologies, and a productive
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Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
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first time in 2007. Series producti
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6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
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The highest growth rates in air fre
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Growth in shares of modes of transp
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Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
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should especially benefit the share
Page 124 and 125:
6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
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6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
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6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131:
7. Financing transport infrastructu
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300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure
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The traditional chronology accordin
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frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139:
World potential for private partici
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250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
Page 142 and 143:
Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
Page 144 and 145:
Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
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Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

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