Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

holds true to a limited degree for natural gas or coal. Transporting the basic commodities is
likely to be more expensive than shipping oil products, with the result that the conversion
plants will be built mainly in the production countries (natural gas: Russia, Middle East; coal:
Australia, South Africa, USA). Pure chemicals tankers (3%) and combined oil products and
chemicals tankers (8%) are the smallest sub-segment of the market, with 11% of tanker tonnage.
These are predominantly small ships under 10,000 dwt, which are designed for an approximately
30-year service life, due their high maintenance intensity and construction costs. This
ship type has only undergone considerable further technical development to adapt it to the increasingly
greater diversification in cargo structure. The number of cargo tanks, pumps and
pipelines has been increased considerably, to make it possible to simultaneously transport
several individual chemicals parcels (parcel tanker traffic).
5.2.4.2 Gas tankers – Energy policy tailwind
With the exception of regenerative energies, the demand for natural gas up to 2030, at 2.4%
annually, will show the highest growth rate among energy sources. As the result of the growing
geographic imbalance between demand and production, international gas trade will increase
even more rapidly, tripling by 2030. 36 Gas can basically be transported via pipeline or, in a liquid
state of aggregation, in special ships. Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid natural gas (LNG)
tankers are differentiated by their liquefaction temperatures. The current 70% share of pipeline-bound
transport is expected to decline in the future, as the shipping of natural gas over long
distances is more cost-effective. 37 Besides, ships can be redirected, adding to flexibility in case
of regional shortages. The market for liquefied gas shipping can be viewed as a long-term growth
market. In view of this positive perspective, the fleet of gas tankers is also growing noticeably.
LPG tankers
LPG tankers transport petroleum gases (propane, butane) that are recovered during the refining
of petroleum and can be liquefied at room temperature with little overpressure. Tankers of this
type are generally also able to carry chemicals like ammonia and petrochemical gases. The fleet
currently amounts to 4% of world tanker tonnage. Since trade with LPGs is likely to maintain
its strong growth rate at least until the end of this decade, orders for this type of tanker have
climbed. In the next three years, the fleet capacity is expected to grow by approximately 37%,
whereby most of the ordered tankers will be delivered in 2008. 38 Larger ships, in particular,
should profit in the future from the growing refinery activities in the Middle East and West
Africa, especially as the transport distance will be increasing.
36 See IEA (2005), BP (2005).
37 Most of the costs for shipping is related to liquefying and regasifying. These energy
costs incur independent of transport distance. See Gasverbund Mittelland (2006).
38 See Clarkson Research Services (2006).
104 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4