Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

More documents

Recommendations

Info

300 250 200 150 100 50 frastructure spending to 1.4% of the GDP has accelerated the aging of such infrastructure. In Europe, driven by the enlargement of the EU and the common currency, €600 bn has been assessed just for the expansion of the trans-European traffic network up to 2020. 85 0 7.1.2.2 Asia – Growth engine for infrastructure The Asian emerging nations constitute the growth center for the construction of new transport infrastructure. With investment quotas averaging 3% of the GDP, ratios are created that go far beyond those of the industrialized nations. Growth will remain brisk in the medium term. Annual investment requirements of $211 bn are expected for Asia until 2010, to escalate to $262 bn by 2015. These figures make the estimates of global investment volumes appear too low. The World Bank envisions the emergence of a financing gap of $180-220 bn for Asia. 86 The emphasis will be placed on investments in rail and road that, alone, account for 90% of the total amount. Although two-thirds of all investments in container ports worldwide are expected to be made in Asia, these only amount to 1% of the investment needs. A greater potential, 7%, will be devoted to airport expansion. These low shares in the investment volume by no means indicate stagnation. In the next 10 years, in fact, investments in airports and container ports will double. 87 The bulk of the predicted investments in land and port infrastructure for Asia falls to China, India, South Korea and Japan. With 60% of the investments, China holds a special position. The capital stock for road and rail is expected to increase by over 10% annually until 2030 – more than twice as rapidly as in the rest of Asia. The potential becomes evident when one considers the fact that the USA, with the same area, has a railroad network that is three times as long and a road network that is four times as long, and that, in 2002, less than 25% of the 85 See OECD (2006a), European Investment Bank (2001). 86 See ESCAP (2006). 87 See ESCAP (2005). Breakdown between Asian emerging markets and industrialized nations 1990–2015 in $ bn Emerging Markets Asia Total-Asia 90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 00-05 05-10 10-15 Total Road Rail Airports Container ports Fig. 19 Source: ESCAP (2006). Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4 131
oads in China were paved (see Chapter 3.2.2.1). 88 Until 2010, India will need $20 bn annually for roads and rail. 89 Replacement investments will be increasing as well. To begin with, there is still some accumulated need to take care of after – as the result of budget consolidations in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of 1997-98 – the GDP share of investments had stagnated at a low level. Furthermore, countries in Asia more often have to struggle with natural disasters. The extreme strain to which the infrastructure is subjected results in higher costs for repairs and maintenance of the quickly growing network. Until 2010, for example, southern Asia will have to spend twice as much for the maintenance of its existing transport infrastructure as for the construction of new facilities. 90 7.2 Who funds and how? – Forms and sources of financing Infrastructure funding has changed appreciably in the past 15 years. In the early 1990s, 78% of transport infrastructure was made possible by the government or through development aid. By now, state funding only accounts for 54%. 91 The gap created by the withdrawal of state and supranational funds is increasingly being filled by private sources. This process is supported by a broad spectrum of private investment opportunities. 7.2.1 Supranational funding In the foreseeable future, developing nations will continue to be dependent upon monetary aid from the community of states. Their burden in comparison with their economic output is considerably higher if the transport infrastructure is inadequate. 92 At the same time, due to the more limited financial resources of these countries and poorly developed capital markets, government funding sources are generally not able to build and maintain an adequate structure. Three-quarters of the money for transport infrastructure thus comes from official development agencies, 25% from private sources. Most of the aid monies is used for road construction projects. 93 Generally speaking, however, the focus of development aid is moving toward economic infrastructure. The share in bilateral development aid sank in the past 20 years from 19% to 13%. In 2004, only 6% of bilateral subsidies were channeled into transport infrastructure. In the portfolio of the international organizations (World Bank, local development banks), these investments, at an average 20%, continue to constitute a focus of appropriations. The absolute amount, however, is decreasing, thus making it essential to tap other funding sources to a greater extent. 94 88 In India, less than 60%, in South Korea, 80% of the roads were paved in 2002. By way of comparison, 99% of all roads in Germany are paved. See ESCAP (2006). 89 See Chatterton/Puerto (2005). 90 See ESCAP (2005). 91 See ESCAP (2006). 92 Countries with low income will have to invest an average of 6.9% of their GDP in economic infrastructure until 2015 to keep up. In line with this evaluation, 1.3% of the GDP would have to be put aside alone for the maintenance and expansion of the road network. See World Bank (2003). 93 See Menendez (1998), World Bank (2003). 80% of development aid from the World Bank for transport infrastructure flows into road construction, 70% of that from the Asian Development Bank. 94 See OECD (2006b); World Bank (2004). 132 Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy 2030 · No. 4
Page 1 and 2:
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Insti
Page 3 and 4:
»Berenberg Bank · HWWI: Strategy
Page 5 and 6:
Contents Part A 7 Summary Part A 8
Page 7 and 8:
5.2.5 Shipyards and shipbuilding na
Page 9 and 10:
Summary Global economic development
Page 11 and 12:
and have consistently modernized an
Page 13 and 14:
The leading exporters and importers
Page 15 and 16:
The three core regions also play a
Page 17 and 18:
The USA continues to be the most im
Page 19 and 20:
Whereas Ricardian foreign trade the
Page 21 and 22:
y the European Union are the Euro-M
Page 23 and 24:
Box 1 Advantages and disadvantages
Page 25 and 26:
eached 1.6% annually between 1985 a
Page 27 and 28:
portant customers for coal in 2004.
Page 29 and 30:
The various regions of the world ar
Page 31 and 32:
Intra-EU trade by mode of transport
Page 33 and 34:
3.3. Determinants of maritime trade
Page 35 and 36:
Annual growth rate in seaborne worl
Page 37 and 38:
4. Maritime trade and port economic
Page 39 and 40:
Shares of individual shipping areas
Page 41 and 42:
2004 amounted in Wilhelmshaven to 9
Page 43 and 44:
of total goods handling in Le Havre
Page 45 and 46:
Shares of total goods handling of t
Page 47 and 48:
4.3 Hubs and feeder transport in Eu
Page 49 and 50:
The top 10 of the world’s largest
Page 51 and 52:
The Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung44 i
Page 53 and 54:
areas. Its location on the Elbe, ho
Page 55 and 56:
Modal split in container handling t
Page 57 and 58:
Generally speaking, it should be as
Page 59 and 60:
Box 5 education and research polici
Page 61 and 62:
5. HWWI forecast 5.1 World trade Th
Page 63 and 64:
has grown much more than trade volu
Page 65 and 66:
ences. Whereas the annual growth ra
Page 67 and 68:
5.3.1 Basic scenario For the basic
Page 70 and 71:
Part B Perspectives of maritime tra
Page 72 and 73:
Among the various modes of transpor
Page 74 and 75:
1.3 The symptoms: Delays at ports f
Page 76 and 77:
2. The macroeconomic significance o
Page 78 and 79:
Parking aids and cruise controls ar
Page 80 and 81:
Using the findings of the HWWI as a
Page 82 and 83: In the PRC, as in Europe, the futur
Page 84 and 85: slipped down to a lower middle-clas
Page 86 and 87: 4. Reorganization of the logistics
Page 88 and 89: In the long term, however, the mark
Page 90 and 91: Fuijan (located opposite Taiwan) fo
Page 92 and 93: Hapag Lloyd, Hanjin (South Korea) -
Page 94 and 95: The mood can become significantly o
Page 96 and 97: The second method, using larger shi
Page 98 and 99: completely or transferred to smalle
Page 100 and 101: Since the large capesize freighters
Page 102 and 103: (1,719 ships) were ordered at the b
Page 104 and 105: The result: Peak Oil will ultimatel
Page 106 and 107: LNG tankers - Elite class with pote
Page 108 and 109: dern technologies, and a productive
Page 110 and 111: Europe’s shipbuilding opportuniti
Page 112 and 113: first time in 2007. Series producti
Page 114 and 115: 6.1.2 Comparing modes of transport:
Page 116 and 117: The highest growth rates in air fre
Page 118 and 119: Growth in shares of modes of transp
Page 120 and 121: Crossing Paths at the Port of Hambu
Page 122 and 123: should especially benefit the share
Page 124 and 125: 6.2.2 Harmonizing and privatizing t
Page 126 and 127: 6.2.4 Support for intermodal networ
Page 128 and 129: 6.3.2 Many roads lead to Rome: New
Page 130 and 131: 7. Financing transport infrastructu
Page 134 and 135: The traditional chronology accordin
Page 136 and 137: frastructure program involving priv
Page 138 and 139: World potential for private partici
Page 140 and 141: 250 200 150 100 50 7.3.2 Investment
Page 142 and 143: Transport infrastructure sectors Fi
Page 144 and 145: Hafen Hamburg (November 1, 2005) ww
show all

Maritime Trade and Transport - HWWI

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?