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Final Report 85 basis for subsequent discussions of societal and economic impacts: the mandate of the two remaining work streams. Table 5.9 Summary of key climate change impacts on London’s environment Issues Climate variables Potential impacts Urban heat island Nocturnal temperatures High pressure and low wind speeds Dominant airflow direction Air quality Stagnant summer anticyclones Airflow direction Temperature inversions Catalysing sunshine Thunderstorms Water resources Winter and summer precipitation Potential and actual evaporation Soil moisture Flood risk Seasonal precipitation totals Winter soil moisture Heavy daily precipitation Multi-day precipitation totals Snowmelt Sea level rise Increased summer heat stress and mortality Reduced winter space-heating Higher underground temperatures Increased use of air conditioning Increased risk of fires Higher rates of refuse decay Increased water demand Increased concentrations of ozone, VOCs, SO2, particulates and pollen Acute asthma epidemics Deleterious effects on urban trees and urban fabric Export of pollutants to wider region Reduced summer soil moisture Shorter potential recharge season for aquifers Lower summer flows Higher winter flows Deteriorating water quality More leakage due to clay shrinkage/expansion Increased domestic water demand Use of rising groundwater More conflict between environmental/societal demands More heavy precipitation days in winter Fewer heavy precipitation days in summer Heavier multi-day precipitation totals in winter More frequent flooding of underground network More localised shallow groundwater flooding More frequent closures of the Thames Barrier Increased supply of fine-grain sediments Saline intrusion to freshwaters
Final Report 86 Issues Climate variables Potential impacts Biodiversity Summer drought/low flows Spring temperatures Soil and groundwater levels Air quality Water quality and temperature Sea level rise 5.8 Bibliography Storminess, wave heights Disturbance regimes e.g., wind throw and fire Changes in physical habitat availability Increased primary production Changes in species phenology, physiology, behaviour, health, reproductive success and community structure Coastal squeeze of Thames estuary intertidal habitats Increased coastal and salt marsh erosion Increase accretion in estuary Extended range of some exotic species More pressure from tourism at conservation sites More conflict between societal/environmental needs Adam, P. 2002. Saltmarshes in a time of change. Environmental Conservation, 29, 39-61. Anderson, H.R., Ponce de Leon A, Bland J.M. 1996. Air pollution and daily mortality in London: 1987-92. British Medical Journal, 312, 665-669. Arnell, N.W. 1998. Climate change and water resources in Britain. Climatic Change, 39, 83- 110. Arnell, N.W. 1999. Climate change and global water resources. Global Environmental Change, 9, S31-S49. Arnell, N.W. and Reynard, N.S. 1996. The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology, 183, 397-424. Association of British Insurers 2002. London Assembly Flooding Scrutiny. London, 10pp. Ashmore, M., Bell, N. and Rutter, J. 1985. The role of ozone in forest damage in West Germany. Ambio, 14, 81-87. Atkinson, B.W. 1968. A preliminary examination of the possible effect of London’s urban area on the distribution of thunder rainfall 1951-60. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 44, 97-118. Austin, G.E., Rehfisch, M.M., Viles, H.A. and Berry, P.M. 2001. Impacts on coastal environments. In: Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M. and Dawson, T.E. (eds). Climate change and nature conservation in Britain and Ireland: Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change (the MONARCH project). UKCIP Technical Report, Oxford. Beebee, T.J.C. 1995. Amphibian breeding and climate. Nature, 374, 219-220. Berry, P.M., Vanhinsberg, D., Viles, H.A., Harrison, P.A. Pearson, R.G., Fuller, R.J., Butt, N. and Miller, F. 2001. Impacts on terrestrial environments. In: Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M. and Dawson, T.E. (eds). Climate change and nature conservation in Britain and Ireland: Modelling
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london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
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London Climate Change Partnership A
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Contents Final Report i Executive S
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Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
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Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
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Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
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Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
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Executive Summary Final Report xi T
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Final Report xiii building and urba
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Final Report 2 There are two study
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Final Report 4
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Final Report 6 In this study histor
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Final Report 8
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Final Report 10 anomalies close to
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"Hot" day anomaly (days) Final Repo
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Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
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Final Report 16 Table 3.1 The five
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Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
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Final Report 20 1900’s, 1940’s,
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Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
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metres AOD Final Report 24 Figure 3
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Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
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Final Report 28 quality is monitore
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Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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Page 51 and 52: Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
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Page 59 and 60: Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
Page 61 and 62: Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
Page 63 and 64: Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
Page 65 and 66: Final Report 48 Precipitation By th
Page 67 and 68: Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
Page 69 and 70: Final Report 52 representing the un
Page 71 and 72: Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
Page 73 and 74: Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
Page 75 and 76: Final Report 58 1961-90 plus 0.26º
Page 79 and 80: Final Report 62 temperature between
Page 81 and 82: Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
Page 83 and 84: Final Report 66 without climate cha
Page 85 and 86: Final Report 68 paradox is explaine
Page 87 and 88: Final Report 70 Table 5.4 Changes i
Page 89 and 90: Final Report 72 to withstand floods
Page 91 and 92: Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
Page 93 and 94: Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
Page 95 and 96: Final Report 78 use/restoration of
Page 97 and 98: Final Report 80 The most important
Page 99 and 100: Final Report 82 of air pollution co
Page 101: Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
Page 105 and 106: Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
Page 107 and 108: Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
Page 109 and 110: Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
Page 113 and 114: Final Report 96 and water supply (e
Page 115 and 116: Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
Page 117 and 118: Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
Page 119 and 120: Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
Page 121 and 122: Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
Page 123 and 124: Final Report 106 London’s attract
Page 125 and 126: Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
Page 127 and 128: Final Report 110 levels of confiden
Page 129 and 130: Final Report 112 with some arguing
Page 131 and 132: Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
Page 133 and 134: Final Report 116 groundwater storag
Page 135 and 136: Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
Page 137 and 138: Final Report 120 Temperature Change
Page 139 and 140: Final Report 122 development on bro
Page 141 and 142: Final Report 124 requirement for fu
Page 143 and 144: Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
Page 145 and 146: Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
Page 147 and 148: Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
Page 149 and 150: Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
Page 151 and 152: Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
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Final Report 136 is because there w
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Final Report 138 the very hottest w
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Final Report 140 Local meetings are
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Final Report 142 workshop in which
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Final Report 144 is important to no
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Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
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Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Final Report 150
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Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
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Final Report 154 ‘Y’ indicates
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Final Report 156 Impacts Due to Win
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Final Report 158 months would resul
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7.3.6 Road Transport Final Report 1
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Final Report 162 It was suggested i
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Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
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Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
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Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts
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Final Report 170 that a significant
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Final Report 172 than concrete and
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Final Report 174 through the implem
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7.6 Financial Services Final Report
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Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
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Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
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Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
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Final Report 195 business strategy,
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Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
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Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
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Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
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Issue Main Points Final Report 203
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Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
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Final Report 207 and will bear the
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Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
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Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
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Final Report 213 policies also stat
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8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
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Final Report 217 present study as w
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Final Report 219 • Could develope
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Final Report 221 consider recreatio
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8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
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Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
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Final Report 227 It is particularly
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9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
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Final Report 231 frequency and inte
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Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
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London Waste Thames Gateway London
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Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
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Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
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Final Report 241 The notes made by
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Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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