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Annual Winter Summer Final Report 47 2020s 2050s 2080s Mean Temperature Change Low Emissions High Emissions Low Emissions High Emissions Low Emissions High Emissions Sw-cty-ge deg C<strong>London</strong>.sh Ukcip-sw-grid2. 4.5 4.5 - 10 4.5 4 3.5 3.5 3 2.5 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 Figure 4.2 Changes in south-east England average annual, winter and summer temperature for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios Note: Although the colour code is consistent with UKCIP02 figures, there are slight differences between the plots shown above and those in the UKCIP02 report. This is because the monthly mean data held on the UKCIP02 website has been smoothed using a 1-2-1 filter (e.g., smoothed Jan mean = [Dec mean + 2*Jan mean + Feb mean]/4) to reduce step changes between months. This smoothing was not undertaken for data used in the maps of the UKCIP02 report (Turnpenny, pers. comm.)
Final Report 48 Precipitation By the 2080s, winter precipitation in the south-east may increase by 10 to 20% for the Low Emissions scenario, to between 25 to 35% for the High Emissions scenario (see Figure 4.3). The pattern is reversed in summer, with a decrease in rainfall for the Low Emissions scenario of up to 30%, and by 50% or more for the High Emissions scenario. The net effect on annual precipitation totals, is a reduction of 5 to 10%. There will also be less snowfall over the southeast – perhaps up to 90% reductions by the 2080s for the High Emissions scenario, and 50-70% reductions for the Low Emissions scenario. The frequency of heavy winter precipitation, however, is projected to increase. For example, the maximum daily precipitation amount that currently occurs once every two winters may increase in intensity by between 10 to 20% for the Low Emissions scenario and by more than 20% for the High Emissions scenario.
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london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
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London Climate Change Partnership A
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Contents Final Report i Executive S
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Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
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Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
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Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
Page 13 and 14: Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
Page 15 and 16: Executive Summary Final Report xi T
Page 17 and 18: Final Report xiii building and urba
Page 19 and 20: Final Report 2 There are two study
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Page 23 and 24: Final Report 6 In this study histor
Page 27 and 28: Final Report 10 anomalies close to
Page 29 and 30: "Hot" day anomaly (days) Final Repo
Page 31 and 32: Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
Page 33 and 34: Final Report 16 Table 3.1 The five
Page 35 and 36: Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
Page 37 and 38: Final Report 20 1900’s, 1940’s,
Page 39 and 40: Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
Page 41 and 42: metres AOD Final Report 24 Figure 3
Page 43 and 44: Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
Page 45 and 46: Final Report 28 quality is monitore
Page 47 and 48: Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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Page 51 and 52: Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
Page 53 and 54: Climate indicators Recent trend Fin
Page 55 and 56: Final Report 38 Marsh, T.J. and Mon
Page 59 and 60: Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
Page 61 and 62: Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
Page 63: Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
Page 67 and 68: Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
Page 69 and 70: Final Report 52 representing the un
Page 71 and 72: Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
Page 73 and 74: Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
Page 75 and 76: Final Report 58 1961-90 plus 0.26º
Page 79 and 80: Final Report 62 temperature between
Page 81 and 82: Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
Page 83 and 84: Final Report 66 without climate cha
Page 85 and 86: Final Report 68 paradox is explaine
Page 87 and 88: Final Report 70 Table 5.4 Changes i
Page 89 and 90: Final Report 72 to withstand floods
Page 91 and 92: Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
Page 93 and 94: Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
Page 95 and 96: Final Report 78 use/restoration of
Page 97 and 98: Final Report 80 The most important
Page 99 and 100: Final Report 82 of air pollution co
Page 101 and 102: Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
Page 103 and 104: Final Report 86 Issues Climate vari
Page 105 and 106: Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
Page 107 and 108: Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
Page 109 and 110: Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
Page 113 and 114: Final Report 96 and water supply (e
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Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
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Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
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Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
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Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
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Final Report 106 London’s attract
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Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
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Final Report 110 levels of confiden
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Final Report 112 with some arguing
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Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
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Final Report 116 groundwater storag
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Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
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Final Report 120 Temperature Change
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Final Report 122 development on bro
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Final Report 124 requirement for fu
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Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
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Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
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Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
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Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
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Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
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Final Report 136 is because there w
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Final Report 138 the very hottest w
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Final Report 140 Local meetings are
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Final Report 142 workshop in which
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Final Report 144 is important to no
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Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
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Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Final Report 150
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Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
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Final Report 154 ‘Y’ indicates
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Final Report 156 Impacts Due to Win
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Final Report 158 months would resul
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7.3.6 Road Transport Final Report 1
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Final Report 162 It was suggested i
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Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
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Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
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Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts
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Final Report 170 that a significant
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Final Report 172 than concrete and
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Final Report 174 through the implem
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7.6 Financial Services Final Report
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Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
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Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
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Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
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Final Report 195 business strategy,
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Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
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Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
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Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
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Issue Main Points Final Report 203
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Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
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Final Report 207 and will bear the
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Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
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Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
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Final Report 213 policies also stat
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8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
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Final Report 217 present study as w
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Final Report 219 • Could develope
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Final Report 221 consider recreatio
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8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
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Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
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Final Report 227 It is particularly
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9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
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Final Report 231 frequency and inte
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Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
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London Waste Thames Gateway London
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Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
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Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
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Final Report 241 The notes made by
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Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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