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Final Report 143 Figure 6.5 An example of the feedbacks between different impacts of climate change. Bold text highlights social, political and cultural consequences. 6.18 Summary and Conclusions To summarise the discussions in this Section, we return to the concept of attractiveness introduced in Part 1. For each section, we made an overall assessment of how climate change is likely to alter the attractiveness of London, and our conclusions are summarised in Table 6.5. It
Final Report 144 is important to note that it is a qualitative judgement based on the material presented in this section and the discussions which lie behind it, and the experience of the research team. It should not be taken as more than a first and very tentative attempt to evaluate impacts. The largest difference of opinion within the research team itself concerned the impacts of climate change upon green and open spaces: according to the more optimistic view point climate change would result in an increase in such space as an adaptation measure; whereas this would not occur to the same extent in the more pessimistic view. The summary table does indicate that on balance the social impacts of climate change upon London are perhaps somewhat more negative than positive. There are, however, some potentially significant benefits for a number of sectors such as tourism and leisure. We have also identified some fairly small benefits for a number of additional sectors including transport, housing, historical and cultural legacy, jobs, health and so on. The larger negative climate change impacts for housing, redevelopment, built environment, health, clean city, cost of living and open and green spaces are all highly uncertain, in part because the scale and precise character of the impact depends on the adjustment and adaptation responses. Most of the larger negatives are attributable to potentially increased flooding, greater incidence of summer heat waves, exacerbation of existing air pollution problems and increased pressures upon open and green spaces. Clearly, suitable adaptation policies and management could limit the incidence of the most negative impacts. A further factor in our assessment is that many of the potentially positive impacts of climate change are somewhat intangible and highly distributed across society. Some of the largest potential negative impacts are more highly concentrated in their distribution, e.g. flood risk, and this can make them appear to be more significant. Compared to the other regional studies of climate change impacts in the UK, there are some significant differences, but also some interesting similarities. It is interesting to note that the pattern of ‘pluses’ and ‘minuses’ in the summary table are rather similar to the pattern obtained in other regional studies (available at www.ukcip.org.uk). The main differences in assessment arise because the area covered by Greater London is much smaller than the other 8 English regions, and does not include anywhere near the same amount of open countryside. Hence, the knock-on social impacts arising from the effects of climate change upon agriculture, large biodiversity resources, long stretches of coastline, and so on, do not apply to the same extent in the London case. The high population density in London (twice that of most other UK cities) and the exceptionally strong growth and population pressures upon the city, and its role as a global city, all serve to make the London study a ‘special case’. The impacts on London will also spill-over in important ways and come to affect the South East and East of England regions (as well as further afield), especially for recreational and leisure purposes. Yet, the pressures from climate change upon the coastline and other beauty spots in the South East are considerable, as indicated in its 1999 climate impacts study (Wade, et al. 1999). Climate change impacts on transport, buildings & built environment, parks & gardens, air pollution, tourism, and so on, are all exacerbated in London compared to other cities and regions, because of the strong pressures already being exerted upon these systems and sectors.
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london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
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London Climate Change Partnership A
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Contents Final Report i Executive S
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Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
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Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
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Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
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Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
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Executive Summary Final Report xi T
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Final Report xiii building and urba
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Final Report 2 There are two study
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Final Report 4
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Final Report 6 In this study histor
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Final Report 8
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Final Report 10 anomalies close to
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"Hot" day anomaly (days) Final Repo
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Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
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Final Report 16 Table 3.1 The five
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Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
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Final Report 20 1900’s, 1940’s,
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Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
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metres AOD Final Report 24 Figure 3
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Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
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Final Report 28 quality is monitore
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Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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ad11:users:ad11:desktop:final tech
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Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
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Climate indicators Recent trend Fin
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Final Report 38 Marsh, T.J. and Mon
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Final Report 40
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Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
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Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
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Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
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Final Report 48 Precipitation By th
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Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
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Final Report 52 representing the un
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Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
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Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
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Final Report 58 1961-90 plus 0.26º
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Final Report 60
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Final Report 62 temperature between
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Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
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Final Report 66 without climate cha
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Final Report 68 paradox is explaine
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Final Report 70 Table 5.4 Changes i
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Final Report 72 to withstand floods
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Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
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Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
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Final Report 78 use/restoration of
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Final Report 80 The most important
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Final Report 82 of air pollution co
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Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
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Final Report 86 Issues Climate vari
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Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
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Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
Page 109 and 110: Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
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Page 113 and 114: Final Report 96 and water supply (e
Page 115 and 116: Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
Page 117 and 118: Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
Page 119 and 120: Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
Page 121 and 122: Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
Page 123 and 124: Final Report 106 London’s attract
Page 125 and 126: Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
Page 127 and 128: Final Report 110 levels of confiden
Page 129 and 130: Final Report 112 with some arguing
Page 131 and 132: Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
Page 133 and 134: Final Report 116 groundwater storag
Page 135 and 136: Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
Page 137 and 138: Final Report 120 Temperature Change
Page 139 and 140: Final Report 122 development on bro
Page 141 and 142: Final Report 124 requirement for fu
Page 143 and 144: Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
Page 145 and 146: Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
Page 147 and 148: Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
Page 149 and 150: Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
Page 151 and 152: Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
Page 153 and 154: Final Report 136 is because there w
Page 155 and 156: Final Report 138 the very hottest w
Page 157 and 158: Final Report 140 Local meetings are
Page 159: Final Report 142 workshop in which
Page 163 and 164: Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
Page 165 and 166: Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Page 169 and 170: Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
Page 171 and 172: Final Report 154 ‘Y’ indicates
Page 173 and 174: Final Report 156 Impacts Due to Win
Page 175 and 176: Final Report 158 months would resul
Page 177 and 178: 7.3.6 Road Transport Final Report 1
Page 179 and 180: Final Report 162 It was suggested i
Page 181 and 182: Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
Page 183 and 184: Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
Page 185 and 186: Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts
Page 187 and 188: Final Report 170 that a significant
Page 189 and 190: Final Report 172 than concrete and
Page 191 and 192: Final Report 174 through the implem
Page 193 and 194: 7.6 Financial Services Final Report
Page 197 and 198: Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
Page 199 and 200: Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
Page 204 and 205: Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
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Table 7.12 Summary table of impacts
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Final Report 195 business strategy,
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Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
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Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
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Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
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Issue Main Points Final Report 203
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Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
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Final Report 207 and will bear the
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Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
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Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
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Final Report 213 policies also stat
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8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
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Final Report 217 present study as w
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Final Report 219 • Could develope
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Final Report 221 consider recreatio
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8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
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Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
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Final Report 227 It is particularly
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9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
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Final Report 231 frequency and inte
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Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
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London Waste Thames Gateway London
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Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
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Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
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Final Report 241 The notes made by
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Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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