London scoping - ukcip

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Final Report 167 live in, would begin to make a difference to the choice of business location (i.e. away from London). These could ultimately suppress the economy, i.e. act as a negative feedback. 7.4.7 Comparison with Other Cities As for energy demand profiles, climate change will clearly increase the demand for cooling in other cities in Europe, America and Asia. As temperatures and humidity rise, the relative efficiency of AC will decline, meaning that more energy has to be used to achieve successively greater levels of cooling. The Tokyo Electricity Company has estimated that there is a need for an increased electricity capacity of 1,600 MW for each 1°C rise in summer air temperature to cope with the peak demand. This is equivalent to a large power station. The costs of cooling to cities which start from a higher extreme temperature and humidity baseline will be larger, therefore. On the other hand, many of the commercial buildings in London, and most of the domestic buildings, will not already have in place the physical infrastructure of AC units. The capital costs will therefore be greater, though there will possibly be benefits achieved through installation of more efficient modern AC units. The possibilities for more sustainably-sourced energy for air conditioning or cooling have been discussed above (fuel cells, borehole cooling, district CHP, etc.). 7.4.8 A Case-Study of New York City Peak summer electricity loads already far exceed winter peaks in New York City, because of air conditioning, and the higher temperatures under future climate change will exacerbate this difference, putting further stress upon the electricity system during summer heat waves (Hill & Goldberg, 2001). In the summer of 1999, four successive heat waves hit NYC, the temperature rising to more than 90°F (32°C) for 27 days (and to more than 100 o F (38°C) for two days). The peak electricity demand occurred on the 6 th July. Brown outs (when electrical power is partially reduced, causing lights to dim) and an extended blackout occurred in the primarily minority neighbourhoods of upper Manhattan and South Bronx (ibid.). Loss of electrical power has serious social, political, economic and health impacts. For instance, the more vulnerable such as the young and elderly are less able to deal with heat stress, and those in high-crime neighbourhoods face increased risk of crime during power cuts. Residents and local politicians in the areas most affected argued that the electricity supplier had not properly maintained the equipment, putting the resident populations at risk. An energy forecasting model has projected that the daily peak load increases in NYC will range from 7 to 12% in the 2020s, 8 to 15% in the 2050s and 11 to 17% in the 2080s (Hill & Goldberg, 2001) (relative to July 1999). (Further research with an appropriate energy model would be necessary to state what the effects of climate change upon load increases in London would be).
Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts - Energy Final Report 168 Climate Change Variable Associated Impacts Potential Severity Ranking Employment Effects High winter temperatures Lower space heating - demand fall M L -ve H Higher summer temperatures Greater air conditions - demand rise Risk of network overheating Increased severity - wind storms Damage to wind power turbines L L? - Sensitivity to socio-economic scenarios Key non climate change sectoral drivers of change Key stakeholders in impact and adaption analysis M M L +ve L -ve Impacts exacerbated under GM scenario Energy pricing - climate change mitigation; regulatory structure Regional electricity companies; National Grid; National Power IPPC uncertainty rating H - Current availability of adaption options
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london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
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London Climate Change Partnership A
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Contents Final Report i Executive S
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Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
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Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
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Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
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Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
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Executive Summary Final Report xi T
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Final Report xiii building and urba
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Final Report 2 There are two study
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Final Report 4
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Final Report 6 In this study histor
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Final Report 8
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Final Report 10 anomalies close to
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"Hot" day anomaly (days) Final Repo
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Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
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Final Report 16 Table 3.1 The five
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Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
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Final Report 20 1900’s, 1940’s,
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Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
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metres AOD Final Report 24 Figure 3
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Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
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Final Report 28 quality is monitore
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Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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ad11:users:ad11:desktop:final tech
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Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
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Climate indicators Recent trend Fin
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Final Report 38 Marsh, T.J. and Mon
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Final Report 40
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Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
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Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
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Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
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Final Report 48 Precipitation By th
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Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
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Final Report 52 representing the un
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Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
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Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
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Final Report 58 1961-90 plus 0.26º
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Final Report 60
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Final Report 62 temperature between
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Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
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Final Report 66 without climate cha
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Final Report 68 paradox is explaine
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Final Report 70 Table 5.4 Changes i
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Final Report 72 to withstand floods
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Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
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Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
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Final Report 78 use/restoration of
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Final Report 80 The most important
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Final Report 82 of air pollution co
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Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
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Final Report 86 Issues Climate vari
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Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
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Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
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Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
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Final Report 94
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Final Report 96 and water supply (e
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Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
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Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
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Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
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Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
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Final Report 106 London’s attract
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Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
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Final Report 110 levels of confiden
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Final Report 112 with some arguing
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Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
Page 133 and 134: Final Report 116 groundwater storag
Page 135 and 136: Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
Page 137 and 138: Final Report 120 Temperature Change
Page 139 and 140: Final Report 122 development on bro
Page 141 and 142: Final Report 124 requirement for fu
Page 143 and 144: Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
Page 145 and 146: Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
Page 147 and 148: Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
Page 149 and 150: Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
Page 151 and 152: Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
Page 153 and 154: Final Report 136 is because there w
Page 155 and 156: Final Report 138 the very hottest w
Page 157 and 158: Final Report 140 Local meetings are
Page 159 and 160: Final Report 142 workshop in which
Page 161 and 162: Final Report 144 is important to no
Page 163 and 164: Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
Page 165 and 166: Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Page 169 and 170: Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
Page 171 and 172: Final Report 154 ‘Y’ indicates
Page 173 and 174: Final Report 156 Impacts Due to Win
Page 175 and 176: Final Report 158 months would resul
Page 177 and 178: 7.3.6 Road Transport Final Report 1
Page 179 and 180: Final Report 162 It was suggested i
Page 181 and 182: Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
Page 183: Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
Page 187 and 188: Final Report 170 that a significant
Page 189 and 190: Final Report 172 than concrete and
Page 191 and 192: Final Report 174 through the implem
Page 193 and 194: 7.6 Financial Services Final Report
Page 195 and 196: Table 7.6 Summary table of impacts
Page 197 and 198: Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
Page 199 and 200: Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
Page 204 and 205: Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
Page 212 and 213: Final Report 195 business strategy,
Page 214 and 215: Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
Page 216 and 217: Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
Page 218 and 219: Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
Page 220 and 221: Issue Main Points Final Report 203
Page 222 and 223: Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
Page 224 and 225: Final Report 207 and will bear the
Page 226 and 227: Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
Page 228 and 229: Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
Page 230 and 231: Final Report 213 policies also stat
Page 232 and 233: 8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
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Final Report 217 present study as w
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Final Report 219 • Could develope
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Final Report 221 consider recreatio
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8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
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Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
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Final Report 227 It is particularly
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9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
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Final Report 231 frequency and inte
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Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
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London Waste Thames Gateway London
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Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
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Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
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Final Report 241 The notes made by
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Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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