London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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It was suggested in the stakeholder consultation that there may be substitution between tourist
destination in the event of an increased incidence of hot summers. Domestic holidays may be
taken instead of international holidays, with an associated fall in demand for international
flights. In the case of the 1995 analogue it was estimated that an extra £1.2 million were spent
on domestic flights, whilst £12 million less were spent on international tourist flights. The
remainder of the increase in domestic travel was met primarily by car and train modes of
transport. The issue of tourist travel patterns is discussed in more detail in the Tourism section
below.
Impacts Due to Wind Storms
There may be more disruption from storm events (with high winds and lightning frequency) in
winter months.
7.3.8 Historical Analogue of Climate Change Event
The analysis above has made reference to the 1995 analogue of a hot summer. The report by
Palutikof et. al. (1997) on the economic consequences of this summer (and unusually warm
year more generally) provides a quantitative summary of the costs and benefits involved for the
UK as a whole and this is reproduced below in 2002 prices. It is recognised that these results
should be scaled down according to the proportion of the costs and benefits the transport
infrastructure of London contributes to the UK total, though we have no reliable way of doing
this. In any case, the values are no more than indicative of the type and scale of costs/benefits
that would be involved in the future.
Table 7.2 Estimated costs and benefits of the weather of 1995 on air, rail, road and water
transport (£ million)
Transport Mode Benefits Costs
Air Transport Increased internal holiday flights (£1.16m) Loss of overseas holidays (£11.6 m)
Rail Transport Increased revenue from holiday and leisure
trips (£11.6 m)
Rail buckles (£1.16m)
Speed restrictions (£1.16m)
Lineside fires (£1.16m)
Road transport Reduced maintenance costs (£9.4 m) Increase in pedal cycle accidents (£14m)
Water transport Reduced delays to offshore shipping
(£1.16m)
Totals Benefits £23.32m Costs £41.84m
Road rutting repairs etc (£11.6 m)
Closure of canals - loss of income (£1.16m)
7.3.9 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences
It is difficult to say whether pressure of use on the underground, trains and buses would be
greater under GM or RS. Under GM, there would be more people in the capital, but under RS
there would be a move towards more public transport, both of which result in higher
underground use. Under GM, the response to unpleasant travelling conditions on the