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Final Report 67 Table 5.3 Potential water resource/quality impacts and responses identified by stakeholders 5.4.3 Case study <strong>London</strong>’s water supply will be affected by climate change impacts outside of the Thames Region; Higher winter temperatures will reduce leakage due to burst pipes as a result of freezing; Wetter winters will lead to expansion of clay and more leaks/bursts in the mains network; Drier soils and subsidence of clay soils will increase leakage in summer; Greater competition for finite resources between domestic and environmental needs; Greater variability in water supply could be reflected in seasonally variable water tariffs; Development of any new reservoir(s) will compete with other land use demands; Public health and hygiene issues associated with reduced water supply/increased cost; Greater use of grey water and rainwater harvesting; More local abstractors, treatment and usage of rising groundwater; Greater use of artificial groundwater recharge; Reluctance of metered water users to respond to water-saving appeals; Increased awareness of environmental ‘costs’ of water consumption; Development and deployment of more innovative water resources options; Increasing awareness amongst the population to use water wisely. Soil moisture and water balance changes in the Rivers Kennet and Loddon For this study, a preliminary assessment was made of potential water resource impacts for two tributaries of the Rivers Thames. Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) were modelled for the Rivers Kennet and Loddon under the Medium-High Emissions and Medium-Low Emissions scenarios (Appendix C). Figure 5.2 shows the anomalies in the annual maximum SMD, and the length of the recharge season with respect to the 1961-1990 average for the River Kennet. Table 5.4 reports mean changes in the water balance and recharge for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Figure 5.3 and Table 5.5 provides equivalent results for the River Loddon. In both catchments, there is a general decline in annual precipitation of between 1 and 9% by the 2080s, accompanied by a reduction in AET of 6 to 10%, despite higher air temperatures. This apparent
Final Report 68 paradox is explained by drier summer soils limiting the rate of surface evaporation – a feature supported by recent PE observations (Marsh, 2001). The net effect of lower precipitation and reduced AET amounts is a rise in the annual maximum SMD, most notably from the 2060s onwards. Drier soils, in turn, imply more clay shrinkage induced subsidence and mains leakage (Doornkamp, 1993). Figure 5.2 Changes in maximum soil moisture deficits (SMDs) and length of recharge season in the River Kennet catchment (Medium-High Emissions, and Medium-Low Emissions, downscaled), with respect to the 1961 to 1990 average Max SMD Anomaly (mm) Max SMD Anomaly (mm) 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 1961 1981 2001 2021 2041 2061 2081 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 1961 1981 2001 2021 2041 2061 2081 Recharge anomaly (days) Recharge anomaly (days) 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 1961 1981 2001 2021 2041 2061 2081 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1961 1981 2001 2021 2041 2061 2081
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london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
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London Climate Change Partnership A
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Contents Final Report i Executive S
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Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
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Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
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Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
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Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
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Executive Summary Final Report xi T
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Final Report xiii building and urba
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Final Report 2 There are two study
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Final Report 4
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Final Report 6 In this study histor
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Final Report 8
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Final Report 10 anomalies close to
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"Hot" day anomaly (days) Final Repo
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Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
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Page 35 and 36: Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
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Page 39 and 40: Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
Page 41 and 42: metres AOD Final Report 24 Figure 3
Page 43 and 44: Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
Page 45 and 46: Final Report 28 quality is monitore
Page 47 and 48: Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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Page 51 and 52: Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
Page 53 and 54: Climate indicators Recent trend Fin
Page 55 and 56: Final Report 38 Marsh, T.J. and Mon
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Page 59 and 60: Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
Page 61 and 62: Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
Page 63 and 64: Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
Page 65 and 66: Final Report 48 Precipitation By th
Page 67 and 68: Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
Page 69 and 70: Final Report 52 representing the un
Page 71 and 72: Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
Page 73 and 74: Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
Page 75 and 76: Final Report 58 1961-90 plus 0.26º
Page 79 and 80: Final Report 62 temperature between
Page 81 and 82: Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
Page 83: Final Report 66 without climate cha
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Page 89 and 90: Final Report 72 to withstand floods
Page 91 and 92: Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
Page 93 and 94: Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
Page 95 and 96: Final Report 78 use/restoration of
Page 97 and 98: Final Report 80 The most important
Page 99 and 100: Final Report 82 of air pollution co
Page 101 and 102: Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
Page 103 and 104: Final Report 86 Issues Climate vari
Page 105 and 106: Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
Page 107 and 108: Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
Page 109 and 110: Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
Page 113 and 114: Final Report 96 and water supply (e
Page 115 and 116: Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
Page 117 and 118: Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
Page 119 and 120: Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
Page 121 and 122: Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
Page 123 and 124: Final Report 106 London’s attract
Page 125 and 126: Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
Page 127 and 128: Final Report 110 levels of confiden
Page 129 and 130: Final Report 112 with some arguing
Page 131 and 132: Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
Page 133 and 134: Final Report 116 groundwater storag
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Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
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Final Report 120 Temperature Change
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Final Report 122 development on bro
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Final Report 124 requirement for fu
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Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
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Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
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Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
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Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
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Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
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Final Report 136 is because there w
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Final Report 138 the very hottest w
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Final Report 140 Local meetings are
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Final Report 142 workshop in which
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Final Report 144 is important to no
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Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
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Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Final Report 150
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Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
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Final Report 154 ‘Y’ indicates
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Final Report 156 Impacts Due to Win
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Final Report 158 months would resul
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7.3.6 Road Transport Final Report 1
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Final Report 162 It was suggested i
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Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
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Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
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Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts
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Final Report 170 that a significant
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Final Report 172 than concrete and
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Final Report 174 through the implem
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7.6 Financial Services Final Report
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Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
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Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
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Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
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Final Report 195 business strategy,
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Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
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Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
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Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
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Issue Main Points Final Report 203
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Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
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Final Report 207 and will bear the
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Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
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Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
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Final Report 213 policies also stat
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8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
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Final Report 217 present study as w
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Final Report 219 • Could develope
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Final Report 221 consider recreatio
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8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
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Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
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Final Report 227 It is particularly
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9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
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Final Report 231 frequency and inte
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Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
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London Waste Thames Gateway London
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Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
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Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
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Final Report 241 The notes made by
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Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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