London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
iii
5.8 Bibliography 86
6. The Potential Social Impacts of Climate Change in
London 95
6.1 Introduction 95
6.2 Combining Changes in Society with Changes in Climate:
The Socio-Economic Scenarios 96
6.2.1 Global Markets (GM) 98
6.2.2 Regional Sustainability (RS) 98
6.2.3 Using the Scenarios 98
6.3 The Draft London Plan: A Hybrid Scenario? 101
6.4 Need for a Comparative Approach 102
6.5 Attractiveness 103
6.6 Autonomous Adjustment and Planned Adaptation 107
6.7 Built Environment 108
6.7.1 Context 108
6.7.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 110
6.7.3 Temperature Change Impacts 111
6.7.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 113
6.7.5 Adaptation and Mitigation 113
6.8 The Domestic Sector 114
6.8.1 Context 114
6.8.2 Changes in rainfall and water resources 115
6.8.3 Temperature Change Impacts 116
6.8.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 119
6.9 Education 120
6.9.1 Context 120
6.9.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 121
6.9.3 Other Climate Change Impacts 121
6.9.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 121
6.10 Redevelopment and Movement of Population 121
6.10.1 Context 121
6.10.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 122
6.10.3 Temperature Change Impacts 125
6.10.4 Indirect Effects due to Demographic Changes 125
6.10.5 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 127
6.10.6 Adaptation Options 127
6.11 Lifestyles and Consumption 128
6.11.1 Context 128
6.11.2 Temperature Change Impacts 128