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Final Report 9 3. Baseline Climate and Environment 3.1 Introduction The south-east of England enjoys a near continental climate that is most pronounced in the Thames Valley. The region is relatively sheltered from the influence of mid-latitude depressions and, as a consequence, is one of the driest and sunniest parts of mainland Britain. Around the Thames estuary annual rainfall totals average just 500 mm, compared with 600-650 mm across the Thames Valley, and over 1000 mm on the South Downs (Mayes, 1997). Unfortunately, the climate of <strong>London</strong> also favours the development of photochemical smog arising from the production of ozone in the presence of pollutants from vehicles and the catalysing effect of sunshine. Extensive urban and suburban landscapes mean that under light winds and little cloud cover, a heat island may develop too, further aggravating local heat stress (Oke, 1987). This is because the urban fabric changes the energy and radiation balance, hydrology and airflow characteristics relative to rural and suburban sites. The relatively small area and general paucity of homogeneous climate records for central <strong>London</strong>, coupled with the artificial heat island, complicates the task of climate change detection and attribution for this urban locale. Where possible, composite records have been employed and/or artificial influences accounted for. However, the importance of recognising data inconsistencies when searching for climate related trends can not be over-stated (Davis, 2000). Regression approaches to trend analysis have also been avoided as the linear form is not necessarily the most appropriate, and because resulting trends can depend on the sub-period of data used. With these issues in mind, the available evidence has been organised in two parts: Sections 3.2 to 3.5 describe the most important changes in driving climate variables, whilst Sections 3.6 to 3.11 describe contemporaneous changes in selected environmental indices. This information provides the baseline for subsequent discussions of regional climate change scenarios and associated impacts. The section concludes with a summary of the key issues and trends. 3.2 Temperature The Central England Temperature (CET) series is the longest instrumental climate record in the world. The monthly catalogue extends back to 1659 and provides a unique insight to climate variability in the UK (Manley, 1953; 1974; Parker et al., 1992). Although the CET record describes temperature changes in the Midlands it is indicative of the signal of temperature change over the Thames Region, and is also untarnished by urban heat island effects. Figure 3.1a shows the record of winter (December to February), spring (March to May), summer (June to August) and autumn (September to November) mean temperature anomalies for the CET from 1861 to 2001. During the 20th Century annual mean temperatures showed a warming of +0.6ºC, with six of the warmest years in the 20th Century occurring since 1989: 1999, 1990, 1997, 1995, 1989 and 1998. Relative to 1961-90 all these years were between 0.9 and 1.2ºC warmer than average. The years 1994 and 2000 were also unusually warm with
Final Report 10 anomalies close to +0.8ºC. Within the year, warming has been greatest from mid-summer to late autumn: July (+ 0.8ºC), August (+ 1.2ºC), September (+0.9ºC), October (+ 1.2ºC) and November (+1.3ºC) respectively.
Page 1 and 2: london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
Page 3 and 4: London Climate Change Partnership A
Page 5 and 6: Contents Final Report i Executive S
Page 7 and 8: Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
Page 9 and 10: Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
Page 11 and 12: Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
Page 13 and 14: Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
Page 15 and 16: Executive Summary Final Report xi T
Page 17 and 18: Final Report xiii building and urba
Page 19 and 20: Final Report 2 There are two study
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Page 23 and 24: Final Report 6 In this study histor
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Page 31 and 32: Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
Page 33 and 34: Final Report 16 Table 3.1 The five
Page 35 and 36: Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
Page 37 and 38: Final Report 20 1900’s, 1940’s,
Page 39 and 40: Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
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Page 43 and 44: Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
Page 45 and 46: Final Report 28 quality is monitore
Page 47 and 48: Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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Page 51 and 52: Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
Page 53 and 54: Climate indicators Recent trend Fin
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Page 59 and 60: Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
Page 61 and 62: Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
Page 63 and 64: Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
Page 65 and 66: Final Report 48 Precipitation By th
Page 67 and 68: Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
Page 69 and 70: Final Report 52 representing the un
Page 71 and 72: Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
Page 73 and 74: Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
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Final Report 60
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Final Report 62 temperature between
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Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
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Final Report 66 without climate cha
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Final Report 68 paradox is explaine
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Final Report 70 Table 5.4 Changes i
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Final Report 72 to withstand floods
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Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
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Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
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Final Report 78 use/restoration of
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Final Report 80 The most important
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Final Report 82 of air pollution co
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Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
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Final Report 86 Issues Climate vari
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Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
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Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
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Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
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Final Report 94
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Final Report 96 and water supply (e
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Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
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Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
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Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
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Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
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Final Report 106 London’s attract
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Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
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Final Report 110 levels of confiden
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Final Report 112 with some arguing
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Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
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Final Report 116 groundwater storag
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Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
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Final Report 120 Temperature Change
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Final Report 122 development on bro
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Final Report 124 requirement for fu
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Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
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Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
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Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
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Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
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Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
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Final Report 136 is because there w
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Final Report 138 the very hottest w
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Final Report 140 Local meetings are
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Final Report 142 workshop in which
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Final Report 144 is important to no
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Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
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Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Final Report 150
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Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
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Final Report 154 ‘Y’ indicates
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Final Report 156 Impacts Due to Win
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Final Report 158 months would resul
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7.3.6 Road Transport Final Report 1
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Final Report 162 It was suggested i
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Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
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Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
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Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts
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Final Report 170 that a significant
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Final Report 172 than concrete and
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Final Report 174 through the implem
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7.6 Financial Services Final Report
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Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
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Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
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Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
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Final Report 195 business strategy,
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Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
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Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
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Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
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Issue Main Points Final Report 203
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Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
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Final Report 207 and will bear the
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Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
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Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
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Final Report 213 policies also stat
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8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
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Final Report 217 present study as w
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Final Report 219 • Could develope
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Final Report 221 consider recreatio
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8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
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Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
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Final Report 227 It is particularly
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9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
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Final Report 231 frequency and inte
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Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
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London Waste Thames Gateway London
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Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
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Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
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Final Report 241 The notes made by
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Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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