London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
195
business strategy, verification of Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms
implementation. Emerging markets in carbon trading are developing and London
is currently well-positioned to become the leading centre for that market.
• The economic costs of disruption to London transport systems was the economic
impact most widely identified by stakeholders in the consultation process. Detailed
modelling of transport flows to, and within, the city, in combination with climate
change model scenarios, are required to accurately assess the likely extent of such
costs. Historical analogues of a single weather-related disruption on only one
stretch of the rail network suggest costs of broadly £2 million.
• The existing net deficit of water resources for the Thames region is predicted - with
a low level of confidence - to be exacerbated by future climate change. Key
stakeholders are currently developing and costing strategies to meet such a deficit
that will - in time - be expected to result in the adoption of a supply option that
increases supply significantly (e.g. a new reservoir). The economic effects of such
strategies are not known at present. For example, possible resulting water price
increases may be subsumed in negotiations with the water regulator.
• The net balance of change in energy demand as a consequence of climate change in
London is not clear. The supply infrastructure network is vulnerable to windstorms
and clay shrinkage. The economic impacts of disruption to the power supply for
extended periods has not been estimated in quantitative terms but is believed to be
significant.
• Manufacturing is subject to disruption of raw materials (e.g. food stuffs) that are
supplied from parts of the world adversely impacted by climate change. Consumer
prices may then be expected to rise. The same mechanism may result in
opportunities for recycling environmental businesses, where the price of virgin raw
materials (e.g. rubber, wood pulp) increases and makes recycled substitute products
more competitive.
• The net economic impact of climate change on tourism and leisure is uncertain.
Revenues may increase as London - and the UK - becomes a more attractive
destination in summer relative to those in Southern Europe and elsewhere that are
likely to suffer from adverse climate change impacts such as the increased threat of
forest fires. However, more trips may be taken from London to escape e.g.
uncomfortable heat island impacts.
• Flood risks, transport disruption, and heat island effects are climate change impacts
that might result in the relocation of workers, or changes in commuting patterns.
These impacts might impact on the supply of labour to London’s public
administration, and other economic sectors or the relocation of employers.
• Increased general awareness of potential and actual climate change impacts in
London is likely to focus policy makers minds on the need to reduce carbon
emissions and adapt to such impacts locally and globally in the future.