London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
125
The Environment Agency (2002) and Thames Estuary Partnership are currently undertaking a
comprehensive assessment of flood protection of the Thames Estuary, and it is proposed that
this should extend its timeframe for assessment beyond 2100. The EA assessment will not be
completed until at least 2006, however. Some of the development decisions in respect of
Thames Gateway may be made in a shorter timeframe than that, e.g. purchase of land for
redevelopment, provision of guidance, planning permissions, etc.
6.10.3 Temperature Change Impacts
Major new development such as the Thames Gateway presents opportunities for innovative
solutions to the problem of over-heating within domestic and commercial buildings. As well as
natural ventilation and mixed-mode approaches, which can take advantage of the flow of cooler
air up the river Thames, there is the potential to use heat exchanges with ground water and/or
with the River Thames and its tributaries. Groundwater heat pumps could utilise the cooler
underground waters for cooling of buildings, whilst heat exchangers extending into the river
Thames would moderate temperatures in summer, also providing some warmth in the winter.
The costs of such heat exchange systems are usually prohibitive, though in the case of a new
development the costs would be relatively more contained. The new GLA City Hall building is
showing a lead by having a borehole ground water cooling system.
6.10.4 Indirect Effects due to Demographic Changes
The demand for housing and associated infrastructure (work places, schools, hospitals,
transport, etc.) depends on the net population in London, represented by Figure 6.4 below. The
workshop discussed the possible impacts of climate change upon these population flows. It was
thought that high climate change might increase the flow of people out of London, since these
would mainly be retired and older people, who would be more attracted to a rural or suburban
residence outside of London because of heat waves and heat discomfort. An additional outflow
might be more seasonal, with wealthier inhabitants decamping in other cooler and cleaner
locations in the UK or elsewhere.
There is currently a net outflow of UK citizens from London. In 1999, 163,000 people moved
into London from elsewhere, whilst 197,000 moved out (ONS 2001). Birth rates per 1000
people in London is significantly higher (by 23%) than the UK average, reflecting the younger
than average population of London compared to the UK average (ONS 2001). The flow of
people into London from elsewhere in the UK would not be sensitive to climate change, it was
felt, because the strong pull of the capital is for jobs and the other elements of attractiveness
identified in Figure 6.2. Also, many of these inward UK migrants are younger and less likely to
be put-off the city by the weather conditions. A proviso to this assessment, however, is if the
‘magnet effect’ of London is diminished by a reduction in its attractiveness (perhaps in a part
because of climate change). In that case, more offices and HQs would be based outside of
London, and the attractiveness of those other locations would increase relative to the capital. A
further proviso is that if sea-level rise threatens coastal habitation in the south east and east of
England (or indeed elsewhere in the UK) there could be an inward migration to London, either
from abandonment of settlements or property blight due to cost or lack of availability of
insurance protection.