London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
153
In the case of each sector considered, a summary table is provided that shows:
Climate change variables and associated impacts
The climate change variables that are presented are crude characterisations of the variables
quantified in detail over the different time horizons in the scenarios presented in Section 4. It
was found in the course of the stakeholder consultation that these characterisations were more
useful in eliciting responses as to possible types of impacts. The impacts themselves are rough
encapsulations of the principal impacts described in the main body of text.
Intra-sectoral severity ranking of economic impacts
The climate change impacts presented in each summary table are given a weighting (H = High;
M = Medium; L = Low) according to the perceived severity of the impact on the economic
health of the sector. Where it has not been possible to use a sectoral stakeholder perception (e.g.
in the case of transport) the project team has made a judgement on the severity ranking.
Employment effects associated with impacts
Adopting the principle used in making the severity ranking, the assessment of employment
effects is with regard to the level of employment presently in the industry. It is not therefore an
assessment of the net employment effect in the economy. It should be emphasised that most of
the employment effects identified are diversionary, or represent transfer, within the economy,
rather than creating new jobs. Again, where it has not been possible to use a sectoral
stakeholder perception the project team has made a judgement on the severity of the
employment effect.
Uncertainty rating
Working Group II of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001) provides a detailed
rating scale for the degree of uncertainty that is currently attached to specific climate change
impacts globally. We have simplified this rating scale to High, Medium and Low, but present
the broad sectoral rating made by Working Group II for the impact identified for London.
Sensitivity to socio-economic scenarios
The socio-economic scenarios are identified in Section 6. Where possible, we have indicated
how each economic impact is likely to be determined by the two different scenarios: Global
Markets (GM), and Regional Sustainability (RS).
Key non climate change sectoral drivers of change
In recognition of the fact that climate change impacts need to be considered in the context of
how the sector is changing more generally, we highlight the principal drivers currently behind
such change. This information should be seen as background information needed to develop a
subsequent adaptation strategy for the sector.
Key stakeholders in impact and adaptation analysis
Identification of key stakeholders is also a prerequisite for looking to develop a subsequent
adaptation strategy for the sector. Before developing such a strategy one would clearly conduct
a full stakeholder analysis that maps the relations between primary and secondary stakeholders.
This is a first task for phase 2 of the current project.
In the final column in the table (‘current availability of adaptation options’):