London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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predisposed to take advantage of new opportunities for tourism and leisure. The less well-off
would, clearly, not share these opportunities to the same extent. Under the RS scenario, there
would be a ratcheting-down of expectations concerning the availability of goods and services
from around the world. There would be a greater focus on local production, and the low level of
climate change could allow a wider range of food produce to be grown locally, with benefits for
the local and UK economy.
High levels of climate change could, conceivably, accelerate the incidence of natural weatherrelated
disasters. Accumulation of disasters and widespread social, economic and
environmental impacts might encourage a shift in values, so moving away from the GM
scenario. Under the RS scenario, a pattern of natural disasters would provide more evidence of
the need for limiting the use of resources.
6.12 Health
6.12.1 Context
Health is regarded by most experts as being strongly related to socio-economic circumstances
such as housing, employment, education and lifestyle (LHC 2002). The high levels of
inequality in London mean that many of the additional impacts from climate change will be felt
most acutely and with greatest consequence by the underprivileged. These would include those
who are less well off, live in unfit and overcrowded housing, do not have fresh food readily
available, suffer from higher unemployment, are less able to pay for suitable adjustment, and so
on. One way to reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change related healthimpacts
is therefore to reduce present-day inequalities.
6.12.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts
Flooding results in health impacts which have been investigated in several studies for the
Environment Agency (e.g. by the Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University). Longterm
effects upon stress and depression levels have also been studied (e.g. from the
Northampton floods of 1998). It was pointed out by Sari Kovats of the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in one of the workshops, however, that there are significant
methodological obstacles to measuring change in stress and depression levels following
flooding. How does one know with any certainty what the baseline level of stress and
depression was prior to the flood event?
6.12.3 Temperature Change Impacts
Warmer Winters
Of the roughly 70,000 deaths in London every year, about 6,000 more occur during the winter
than would be expected from the rate during the rest of year. There is some evidence to link this
to cold homes and age. Countries with much colder winter climates, but higher standards of
heating and insulation (e.g. Sweden) have much lower excess winter death rates. While
improved insulation and heating is far more important than changes in winter weather, a
reduction in very cold spells is likely to reduce excess winter deaths over and above the effects
of dwelling improvements. The Department of Health suggest that up to 20,000 fewer deaths
might occur in the UK as a whole as a consequence of medium-high climate change by the