London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
161
It is also suggested 2 that a significant effect of higher winter temperatures, and in particular
lower incidence of frost and snow, would be to reduce the level of resources committed to road
maintenance during the winter. This would result in a saving in local authority road
maintenance budgets for activities such as salting/gritting that prevent ice forming on road
surfaces.
Impacts Due to Wind Storms
High winds, though highly uncertain in the UKCIP02 scenarios, are always a problem for
surface transport because of more debris and vegetation which finds its way onto rail lines and
roads, causing obstruction and delays. It may be assumed that poorer weather would increase
the number of accidents on the roads. At the national scale, that is not the case: the vast
majority of road accidents occur in fine weather (Edwards 1999). Thornes (1997) points out
that in 1995 two thirds of road accidents occurred on dry road surfaces. One hypothesis of why
there are more accidents in better weather conditions is that drivers are much more careful in
their driving habits when there are poor weather conditions: there is some evidence of a
reduction in accidents in poor driving conditions.
7.3.7 Air Transport
Context
London supports four international airports and three national airports and whilst not all of these
airports are within the Greater London area, their workings help to determine the economic
functioning of the city, and are determined by the city’s economy. London Heathrow is
believed to have the highest volume of air traffic of any airport in the world - at approximately
700,000 transport movements per year. With 80 million passengers and an expanding freight
burden London Heathrow has a significant role in the local and national economies. Over
120,000 people are currently directly employed in London airports and air transport logistics.
Stakeholder consultation revealed the following potential impacts of climate change on the air
transport sector.
Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts
One impact follows directly from the discussion of water freight transport to London, in the subsection
immediately above. If low flows in summer months on the River Thames make
navigation by freight carriers more perilous it is likely that there will be some substitution,
(though as yet un-quantified), between river and air freight transport modes, with a clear
increase in air transport demand and possible positive knock-on effects on road and rail freight
links within London.
Temperature Change Impacts
A reduction in winter snowfall and frost frequency will result in reduced time disruption costs
as flights are less disrupted, and a reduction in associated cold weather aircraft and runway
infrastructure costs.
2 J.Palutikof Pers. comm.