London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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live in, would begin to make a difference to the choice of business location (i.e. away from
London). These could ultimately suppress the economy, i.e. act as a negative feedback.
7.4.7 Comparison with Other Cities
As for energy demand profiles, climate change will clearly increase the demand for cooling in
other cities in Europe, America and Asia. As temperatures and humidity rise, the relative
efficiency of AC will decline, meaning that more energy has to be used to achieve successively
greater levels of cooling. The Tokyo Electricity Company has estimated that there is a need for
an increased electricity capacity of 1,600 MW for each 1°C rise in summer air temperature to
cope with the peak demand. This is equivalent to a large power station. The costs of cooling to
cities which start from a higher extreme temperature and humidity baseline will be larger,
therefore. On the other hand, many of the commercial buildings in London, and most of the
domestic buildings, will not already have in place the physical infrastructure of AC units. The
capital costs will therefore be greater, though there will possibly be benefits achieved through
installation of more efficient modern AC units. The possibilities for more sustainably-sourced
energy for air conditioning or cooling have been discussed above (fuel cells, borehole cooling,
district CHP, etc.).
7.4.8 A Case-Study of New York City
Peak summer electricity loads already far exceed winter peaks in New York City, because of air
conditioning, and the higher temperatures under future climate change will exacerbate this
difference, putting further stress upon the electricity system during summer heat waves (Hill &
Goldberg, 2001). In the summer of 1999, four successive heat waves hit NYC, the temperature
rising to more than 90°F (32°C) for 27 days (and to more than 100 o F (38°C) for two days). The
peak electricity demand occurred on the 6 th July. Brown outs (when electrical power is partially
reduced, causing lights to dim) and an extended blackout occurred in the primarily minority
neighbourhoods of upper Manhattan and South Bronx (ibid.). Loss of electrical power has
serious social, political, economic and health impacts. For instance, the more vulnerable such as
the young and elderly are less able to deal with heat stress, and those in high-crime
neighbourhoods face increased risk of crime during power cuts. Residents and local politicians
in the areas most affected argued that the electricity supplier had not properly maintained the
equipment, putting the resident populations at risk. An energy forecasting model has projected
that the daily peak load increases in NYC will range from 7 to 12% in the 2020s, 8 to 15% in
the 2050s and 11 to 17% in the 2080s (Hill & Goldberg, 2001) (relative to July 1999). (Further
research with an appropriate energy model would be necessary to state what the effects of
climate change upon load increases in London would be).