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Final Report 195 business strategy, verification of Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms implementation. Emerging markets in carbon trading are developing and London is currently well-positioned to become the leading centre for that market. • The economic costs of disruption to London transport systems was the economic impact most widely identified by stakeholders in the consultation process. Detailed modelling of transport flows to, and within, the city, in combination with climate change model scenarios, are required to accurately assess the likely extent of such costs. Historical analogues of a single weather-related disruption on only one stretch of the rail network suggest costs of broadly £2 million. • The existing net deficit of water resources for the Thames region is predicted - with a low level of confidence - to be exacerbated by future climate change. Key stakeholders are currently developing and costing strategies to meet such a deficit that will - in time - be expected to result in the adoption of a supply option that increases supply significantly (e.g. a new reservoir). The economic effects of such strategies are not known at present. For example, possible resulting water price increases may be subsumed in negotiations with the water regulator. • The net balance of change in energy demand as a consequence of climate change in London is not clear. The supply infrastructure network is vulnerable to windstorms and clay shrinkage. The economic impacts of disruption to the power supply for extended periods has not been estimated in quantitative terms but is believed to be significant. • Manufacturing is subject to disruption of raw materials (e.g. food stuffs) that are supplied from parts of the world adversely impacted by climate change. Consumer prices may then be expected to rise. The same mechanism may result in opportunities for recycling environmental businesses, where the price of virgin raw materials (e.g. rubber, wood pulp) increases and makes recycled substitute products more competitive. • The net economic impact of climate change on tourism and leisure is uncertain. Revenues may increase as London - and the UK - becomes a more attractive destination in summer relative to those in Southern Europe and elsewhere that are likely to suffer from adverse climate change impacts such as the increased threat of forest fires. However, more trips may be taken from London to escape e.g. uncomfortable heat island impacts. • Flood risks, transport disruption, and heat island effects are climate change impacts that might result in the relocation of workers, or changes in commuting patterns. These impacts might impact on the supply of labour to London’s public administration, and other economic sectors or the relocation of employers. • Increased general awareness of potential and actual climate change impacts in London is likely to focus policy makers minds on the need to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to such impacts locally and globally in the future.
7.13 Bibliography Final Report 196 Agnew M. and Viner D. (2000) Potential impacts of climate change on international tourism. International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research. Bender, S.O, (1991): Managing natural hazards. In: Managing Natural Disasters and the Environment [Kreimer, A. and M.Munasinghe (eds)] Proceedings of a colloquium sponsored by the World Bank, Washington D.C., USA, pp. 182 - 185. Brick, J., and Goldt, R., (2001). “City of London Flood Plain Management Tour 2001”. Upper Thames River Conservation Authority, London, Ontario, Canada Bullock, S., Scott, A., and Stephens, C., (2001) ‘Environmental Justice’. Economic & Social Research Council, Special Briefing No. 7. Swindon, England. Burgess, K., Deakin, R., Samuels, P., Chatterton, J., and Penning-Rowsell, E., (June 2000): “Assessment of Economic Value of National Assets at Risk from Flooding and Coastal Erosion”. Final Report, July 2001 (published September 2001, placed on the web in October 2001.). Available for downloading from: www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/default.htm Chartered Institute of Insurers (2001). “Climate Change and Insurance.” Ed. Dlugolecki, A. Chartered Insurance Institute Research Report, London 2001. (Available on www.cii.co.uk) Crichton, D. (2001a) “The Implications of Climate Change for the Insurance Industry.” (ISBN 1-903852-00-5), Building Research Establishment, Watford, England. Crichton, D, (2001b) A Scottish lead in managing flood risk. Town & Country Planning Journal, June 2001, Vol. 70, London, June 2001, pp.188-189 Cumming Cockburn Ltd, (2000) “Hurricane Hazel and Extreme Rainfall in Southern Ontario” Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Research Paper Series No. 9. University of Western Ontario, Canada. DEFRA (2001). “Policy Planning Guidelines – Flooding – PPG 25” HMSO, London. Department of Health, (2001). “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK”. Department of Health, London. Dlugolecki, A., (2000) “Climate Change and the financial services industry” Speech given at the UNEP Press Conference in COP 6 at The Hague on 23/11/00. Environment Agency, (2001a). “Review of the Appraisal Framework” Environment Agency, Bristol Environment Agency, (2001b). Water resources for the future: A strategy for the Thames Region. Environment Agency Futter, M and Lang, I (2001) – Montgomery Watson “Implications for Scotland of Recent Developments in Design Rainfall Estimation and Climate Change” Scottish Wastewater Planning Users Group (WaPUG) Meeting 12 th June 2001, Dunblane Green, C., (2002). Personal Communication. Sir William Halcrow & Partners Ltd. (October 1994). "Identification of Coastal Flood Areas in England and Wales" Association of British Insurers, London.
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london’swarming The Impacts of Cl
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London Climate Change Partnership A
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Contents Final Report i Executive S
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Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 8
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Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156
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Final Report vii 8.5.1 Monitoring I
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Final Report ix Figure 3.3 River Th
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Executive Summary Final Report xi T
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Final Report xiii building and urba
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Final Report 2 There are two study
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Final Report 4
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Final Report 6 In this study histor
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Final Report 8
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Final Report 10 anomalies close to
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"Hot" day anomaly (days) Final Repo
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Final Report 14 3.3 Precipitation (
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Final Report 16 Table 3.1 The five
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Final Report 18 Figure 3.6 Number o
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Final Report 20 1900’s, 1940’s,
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Final Report 22 Figure 3.9 Days wit
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metres AOD Final Report 24 Figure 3
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Final Report 26 Figure 3.13 Number
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Final Report 28 quality is monitore
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Final Report 30 Table 3.2 Nature co
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Final Report 34 Table 3.4 Exemplar
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Climate indicators Recent trend Fin
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Final Report 38 Marsh, T.J. and Mon
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Final Report 40
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Final Report 42 Table 4.2 Consensus
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Final Report 44 Table 4.4 Summary o
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Final Report 46 Figure 4.1 Referenc
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Final Report 48 Precipitation By th
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Final Report 50 Sea Level Rates of
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Final Report 52 representing the un
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Final Report 54 Figure 4.7 Winter (
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Final Report 56 4.7 Statistical Dow
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Final Report 58 1961-90 plus 0.26º
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Final Report 60
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Final Report 62 temperature between
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Final Report 64 Table 5.2 Potential
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Final Report 66 without climate cha
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Final Report 68 paradox is explaine
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Final Report 70 Table 5.4 Changes i
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Final Report 72 to withstand floods
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Final Report 74 Figure 5.5 The 60-d
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Final Report 76 Figure 5.6 The area
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Final Report 78 use/restoration of
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Final Report 80 The most important
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Final Report 82 of air pollution co
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Final Report 84 5.6.6 Adaptation Op
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Final Report 86 Issues Climate vari
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Final Report 88 Davis, R.J. 2001. T
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Final Report 90 Klein, R.J.T., Nich
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Final Report 92 Reed, D.J. 1990. Th
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Final Report 94
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Final Report 96 and water supply (e
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Final Report 98 Medium-Low Emission
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Final Report 100 Variable Global Ma
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Final Report 102 6.4 Need for a Com
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Final Report 104 Figure 6.2 aims to
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Final Report 106 London’s attract
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Final Report 108 Figure 6.3 Autonom
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Final Report 110 levels of confiden
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Final Report 112 with some arguing
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Final Report 114 reducing the H/W r
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Final Report 116 groundwater storag
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Final Report 118 explored in Tokyo
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Final Report 120 Temperature Change
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Final Report 122 development on bro
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Final Report 124 requirement for fu
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Final Report 126 Figure 6.4 Flows o
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Final Report 128 6.11 Lifestyles an
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Final Report 130 2050s (DoH 2002).
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Final Report 132 Table 6.4 Potentia
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Final Report 134 glistening pebbles
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Final Report 136 is because there w
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Final Report 138 the very hottest w
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Final Report 140 Local meetings are
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Final Report 142 workshop in which
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Page 163 and 164: Final Report 146 Table 6.5 Summary
Page 165 and 166: Final Report 148 Martens, W. (1996)
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Page 169 and 170: Final Report 152 Box 1 A profile of
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Page 179 and 180: Final Report 162 It was suggested i
Page 181 and 182: Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts
Page 183 and 184: Final Report 166 In fact it is esti
Page 185 and 186: Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts
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Page 189 and 190: Final Report 172 than concrete and
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Page 193 and 194: 7.6 Financial Services Final Report
Page 197 and 198: Final Report 180 7.7.4 Impacts Due
Page 199 and 200: Final Report 182 7.8 Environmental
Page 204 and 205: Final Report 187 Table 7.9 Potentia
Page 214 and 215: Final Report 197 Sir William Halcro
Page 216 and 217: Final Report 8. Summary and Policy
Page 218 and 219: Issue Main Points Biodiversity Buil
Page 220 and 221: Issue Main Points Final Report 203
Page 222 and 223: Climate Impact Adaptation Options L
Page 224 and 225: Final Report 207 and will bear the
Page 226 and 227: Final Report 209 In an RS world, th
Page 228 and 229: Final Report 211 newcomers from acr
Page 230 and 231: Final Report 213 policies also stat
Page 232 and 233: 8.4.2 London Development Agency Fin
Page 234 and 235: Final Report 217 present study as w
Page 236 and 237: Final Report 219 • Could develope
Page 238 and 239: Final Report 221 consider recreatio
Page 240 and 241: 8.4.7 London Biodiversity Partnersh
Page 242 and 243: Final Report 225 8.5.5 Health and C
Page 244 and 245: Final Report 227 It is particularly
Page 246 and 247: 9. Conclusions 9.1 Initial Study Fi
Page 248 and 249: Final Report 231 frequency and inte
Page 250 and 251: Final Report 233 • Engaged a wide
Page 252 and 253: London Waste Thames Gateway London
Page 254 and 255: Aim of the Workshop Final Report 23
Page 256 and 257: Final Report 239 Table 2 Summary of
Page 258 and 259: Final Report 241 The notes made by
Page 260 and 261: Final Report 243 • Past populatio
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• Local Government implementation
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• Water table • Air conditionin
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• London Health Observatory Final
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Flooding Water Resources Air Qualit
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• Landfill location by river Fina
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• Tensions are limits to growth F
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Final Report 257 • Impacts on nat
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Final Report 259 • How will atmos
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Final Report 261 • Learn from cli
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Government Cultural Heritage • De
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Final Report 265 Where or who is ex
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• Business - transport + infrastr
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES Final Report
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Final Report 271 • Increased risk
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Final Report 273 • In Central Lon
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WORKSHOP EVALUATION Final Report 27
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Final Report 277 further study to e
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Final Report 279 Geoff Jenkins Hadl
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Final Report 281 Appendix C Represe
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Final Report 283 Climate prediction
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Final Report 285 GQA General Qualit
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Final Report 287 Stochastic A proce
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crime arising from extreme weather
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open spaces 113, 136-8, 212 increas
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tunnels (cont) stability 110 Tyndal
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