London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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In fact it is estimated that more air conditioning (AC) will increase the demand for summer
energy, perhaps by 10 to 15% by 2050s, and by 20 to 25% by the 2080s. Warmer winters will
generally reduce electricity demand. Energy for heating in the winter is usually provided by
gas, whilst AC runs off electricity. Hence, the provision of summer cooling is more expensive
than winter warming. Detailed work is required to assess what the change in energy demand in
London would be as a consequence of climate change, and hence what is the balance between
the increased use of electricity in the summer and decreased gas use in the winter. The
increased demand for electricity for AC during ‘peak’ hours (midday to evening) requires a
disproportionately high increase in generation capacity, which would remain idle for much of
the time and would therefore incur high capital costs.
This will put further strain on the transmission and distribution networks with a consequent
increased risk of ‘black-outs’ occurring in the system, with associated costs to the economy
from disruption of business activities.
To compound the problem, increased average temperature will restrict the load that can be
carried by the transmission and distribution networks due to the increased risk of overheating.
It is clear that climate change is likely to exacerbate seasonal differences in demand and perhaps
result in a greater degree of associated seasonal demand for contract workers in the energy
sector.
7.4.4 Impacts Due to Wind Storms
From the point of view of wind power, increased wind speeds will mean increased production.
A 1% increase in wind speed is equivalent to a 3% increase in available wind power. This will
be significant for a wind farm off the south-east coast which produces greatest output during the
winter months. On the other hand, increases in storm events and more frequent return gusts will
increase wind turbine fatiguing.
7.4.5 Communications Infrastructure
The impacts on communications infrastructure as a result of possible climate change in London
is considered here since it shares many common features with the discussion of energy
infrastructure above. The stakeholder consultation showed that communications are considered
vulnerable to a number of climate change related weather patterns including:
Exposure of above-ground infrastructure, e.g. radio masts in the London area, to extreme wind
events and a resultant increased risk of service disruption and repair costs. There may also be
service disruption to customers in London as a result of damage to infrastructure elsewhere in
the UK.
Decrease in summer rainfall resulting in clay shrinkage in many parts of London that may
reduce the resistance of below-ground infrastructure, e.g. cabling.
7.4.6 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences
Under GM, one might argue that the costs of climate change would be absorbed by the vibrant
state of the economy, and increased energy costs from AC would be readily absorbed. There
may, however, be ‘thresholds’ beyond which comparative costs elsewhere, and perhaps other
types of innovation and development to make other cities ‘greener’ and more pleasant places to