London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries. The TAR also emphasises the
importance of understanding the implications of climate change at the regional level. One of the
organisations that runs computer models to estimate future climate change at the global level is
the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. These models are used by the
IPCC. The work of the Hadley Centre is briefly described in the next section.
2.3 Progress with Climate Change at the National Level
The UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP), set up by the Government in 1997, seeks to
develop an integrated approach to impact evaluation in the UK by working with decisionmakers.
UKCIP provides tools for use in impacts studies, notably the UKCIP climate change
scenarios, produced by:
The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which sits within the Met
Office and develops computer models to predict future climate changes based on
extensive monitoring and research.
The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, based at the University of East
Anglia, which has a focus on trans-disciplinary climate change research - both
mitigation and adaptation - within the context of sustainable development.
The latest UKCIP Climate Change Scenarios report, produced in April 2002, presents a set of
four scenarios for future climate change in the UK. These are discussed in Section 4. These
scenarios are based on our current understanding of climate change as developed by the Hadley
Centre and provide a common starting point for assessing climate change vulnerability, impact
and adaptation in the UK.
A number of studies have been, or are being, carried out to interpret the impacts of the scenario
climate changes at the regional level. These include studies for Scotland, the North West
England, the South East England, Wales, East Midlands, West Midlands, Northern Ireland,
Yorkshire and Humber as well as a major conference on climate change impacts in South West
England. This London scoping study follows on from the other regional studies under the
umbrella of the UKCIP. Studies are also being carried out into sectors that could be vulnerable
to climate change such as biodiversity, natural resources (the MONARCH study), health,
gardens, water demand, built environment and the marine environment. These studies have
been reviewed and information from them, where relevant, has been used in this technical
report.